Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; rising since 9:30 AM on December 3
- The odds are for an up day; watch for break below 3121.25 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Non-Farm Employment Change ( 266K vs. 181K; prev. 128K ) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Rate ( 3.5% vs. 3.6% est; prev. 3.6%) at 8:30 AM
- Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 97.0 est. ; prev. 96.8 ) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3119.38, 3109.74 and 3103.76
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3144..31, 3150.18 and 3154.26
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3139.50, the low of 12:30 PM on November 29 and break below 3121.25, the low of 8:30 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3118.00 and the index closed at 3117.43 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 3117.75 for the day; the fair value is +0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +15.50; Dow by +159 and NASDAQ by +52.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai closed lower;
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.797%, up from December 4 close of 1.781%;
- 30-years is at 2.239%, up from 2.229%
- 2-years yield is at 1.584%, up from 1.572%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.209 unchanged
- Is at 14.34 down from December 5 close of 14.52; below 5-day SMA
- Recent high was 17.99 on December 3; recent low was 11.42 on November 26
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
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|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, December 5 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume. Many major indices made candlestick pattern that showed indecision.
The S&P 500 increased 0.2% on Thursday in a mixed session, as investors continued to follow the latest trade headlines with muted conviction. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and Russell 2000 (+0.1%) each increased 0.1%.
U.S. Treasuries finished the session on a lower note. The 2-yr yield increased one basis point to 1.59%, and the 10-yr yield increased two basis points to 1.80%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.3% to 97.38. WTI crude finished little changed at $58.45/bbl as OPEC+ convened in Vienna to discuss production cuts.
• Initial claims for the week ending November 30 dropped by 10,000 to 203,000 (Briefing.com consensus 221,000). Continuing claims for the week ending November 23 increased by 51,000 to 1.693 million.
o The key takeaway from this report is the understanding that initial claims dropped back close to the lowest levels on record, which will contribute to a belief that the labor market remains tight.
• The key takeaway from this report is the understanding that initial claims dropped back close to the lowest levels on record, which will contribute to a belief that the labor market remains tight. The narrowing in the deficit was a function of exports (-$0.4 billion) declining less than imports (-$4.3 billion).
o The key takeaway from the report, however, is that a decline in both exports and imports for the second straight month is not a hallmark of a global economy running strong.
• The Factory Orders report for October increased 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%), and the September reading was revised to -0.3% (from -0.6%).