Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; rising since 4:00 PM on Tuesday
- The odds are for an up to sideways day; watch for break below 3141.75 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Durable Goods Orders ( 0.6% vs. -0.5% est.; prev. -1.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Core Durable Goods Orders ( 0.6% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. -0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim GDP (2.1% vs. 1.9% est.; prev. 1.9%) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim GDP Price Index (1.8% vs. 1.7% est.; prev. 1.7%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims ( 213K vs. 223K est.; prev. 228K) at 8:30 AM
- Chicago PMI ( 47.2 est. ; prev. 43.2) at 9:45 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3134.93, 3127.25 and 3117.44
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3145.25, 3149.76 and 3156.83
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3150.25, the high of 5:00 AM and break below 3141.75, the low of 7:30 PM
- On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3139.50 and the index closed at 3140.52 – a spread of about -1.00 points; futures closed at 3143.75 for the day; the fair value is -4.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +2.00; Dow down by -5 and NASDAQ up by +13.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai closed lower;
- European markets are mostly higher – Italy is down
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.772%, up from November 25 close of 1.764%;
- 30-years is at 2.206%, down from 2.207%
- 2-years yield is at 1.608%, up from 1.606%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.165 up from 0.161
- Is at 11.59 up from November 27 close of 11.54; below 5-day SMA
- Recent high was 14.17 on November 20; recent low was 11.42 on November 26
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, November 26 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. Major indices, except small cap and transports, made all time highs.
The stock market extended its record run on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 (+0.2%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) also closing near their session highs. The Russell 2000 increased 0.1% but closed off its highs.
Leading the advance were the S&P 500 real estate (+1.4%), consumer staples (+0.8%), consumer discretionary (+0.8%), and materials (+0.5%) sectors. The energy (-1.0%), financials (-0.1%), and health care (-0.1%) sectors were the lone holdouts.
Separately, several Dow components set new all-time highs today. Walt Disney (DIS 151.64, +1.95, +1.3%) was one of them after the stock was initiated with an Outperform rating at Consumer Edge Research with a price target of $175.
U.S. Treasuries continued to increase, which sent yields slightly lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield declined three basis point to 1.58%, and the 10-yr yield declined two basis points to 1.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 98.23. WTI crude increased 0.6%, or $0.32, to $58.30/bbl.
• New home sales in October decreased 0.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 710,000) from an upwardly revised 738,000 (from 701,000) in September. On a yr/yr basis, new home sales were up 31.6%.
o The key takeaway from the report is that the October showing was better than what meets the eye at first blush given the large, upward revision to the prior month’s number.
• The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for November eased to 125.5 (Briefing.com consensus 126.9) from 125.9 in October, marking the fourth straight monthly retreat.
o The key takeaway from the report is that consumers continue to remain relatively upbeat about the short-term outlook based in part on income prospects, which should be a support for holiday spending activity.
• The Advance International Trade in Goods report for October showed a narrowing in the deficit to $66.5 billion from $70.5 billion in September. Advance Retail Inventories were up 0.3% on top of a 0.2% increase in September and Advance Wholesale Inventories increased 0.2% after declining 0.7% in September.
• The FHFA Housing Price Index for September increased 0.6% following an unrevised 0.2% increase in August.
• The S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index for September increased 2.1% (Briefing.com consensus 2.6%) following an unrevised 2.0% increase in August.