Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower;
- The odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break below 3000.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment ( 96.0 est.; prev. 96.0) at 10:00 AM
- Revised UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 2.5%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3001.82, 2993.83 and 2991.21
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3012.01, 3016.07 and 3021.99
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3008.25, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 3000.00, the low of 7:00 PM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3008.50 and the index closed at 3010.29 – a spread of about -1.75 points; futures closed at 3004.25 for the day; the fair value is +4.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are mixed – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.25; Dow down by up -48 and NASDAQ up by +3.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Hong Kong was down
- European markets are mixed – Germany, U.K and STOXX 600 are lower; France, Spain, Italy and Switzerland are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.766%, up from October 23 close of 1.759%;
- 30-years is at 2.259%, up from 2.251%
- 2-years yield is at 1.571%, down from 1.575%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.195 up from 0.184
- Is at 13.45 down from October 24 close of 13.71; below 5-day SMA 13.922
- Recent high was 20.38 on October 8; recent low was 13.31 on October 17
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday, October 24 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The indices opened to the upside then immediately declined to turn negative then rose and again fell before rising near the close.
The major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday, with the tech-sensitive Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) rising above its peers in an earnings-driven advance. The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%), and Russell 2000 (-0.2%) finished near their unchanged marks.
The Nasdaq benefited from upbeat results from a host of companies, including Microsoft (MSFT 139.94, +2.70, +2.0%), PayPal (PYPL 104.91, +8.27, +8.6%), Tesla (TSLA 299.68, +45.00, +17.7%), and Lam Research (LRCX 265.60, +32.42, +13.9%). The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+2.5%) rose on the back of Lam Research’s results and guidance.
U.S. Treasuries finished the session little changed. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield were unchanged at 1.58% and 1.76%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 97.68. WTI crude increased 0.7%, or $0.40, to $56.23/bbl.
• New home sales slipped 0.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 701,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 703,000) from a downwardly revised 706,000 (from 713,000) in August. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 15.5%.
o The key takeaway from the report is the weaker activity seen in sales of higher-priced homes, as that speaks to the affordability pressures presented by mortgage rates that went up in September. Remember, new home sales are recorded when a contract is signed not when the sale closes (as is the case for existing home sales).
• Durable goods orders for September declined 1.1% (Briefing.com consensus -1.0%) on the heels of an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.2%) in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were down 0.3%, as expected.
o The key takeaway from the report is the indication that business spending remained weak, as evidenced by the 0.5% decline in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which followed a 0.6% decline in August.
• Initial claims for the week ending October 19 decreased by 6,000 to 212,000 (Briefing.com consensus 217,000). Continuing claims for the week ending October 12 decreased by 1,000 to 1.682 million.
o The key takeaway from the report is that there are no alarming trends in this series for the consumer outlook, as jobless claims continue to track close to historic lows.