Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher;
- The odds are for a sideways to an up day – watch for break below 3003.00 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Durable Goods Orders (-1.1% vs. -0.5% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
- Core Durable Goods Orders (-0.3% vs. -0.2% est. ; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (212K vs. 216K est.; prev. 218K) at 8:30 AM
- Flash Manufacturing PMI (50.7 est. ; prev. 51.1) at 9:45 AM
- Flash Services PMI (51.0 est.; prev. 50.9) at 9:45 AM
- New Home Sales (710K est.; prev. 713K) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2993.83, 2991.21 and 2986.39
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3014.57, 3021.99 and 3021.99
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3012.25, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 3003.00, the low of 4:00 AM
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3003.50 and the index closed at 3004.52 – a spread of about -0.75 points; futures closed at 3005.75 for the day; the fair value is -2.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.75; Dow by up +46 and NASDAQ up by +45.75
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Mumbai were down
- European markets are higher
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 1.764%, up from October 23 close of 1.759%;
- 30-years is at 2.254%, up from 2.251%
- 2-years yield is at 1.563%, down from 1.575%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.201 up from 0.184
- Is at 13.85 down from October 23 close of 14.01; below 5-day SMA 14.114
- Recent high was 20.38 on October 8; recent low was 13.31 on October 17
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, October 23 in lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed lower. The indices opened to the downside and then rose till midday then tested the days lows by 3:00 PM before turning around and closing near the high for the day..
The S&P 500 increased 0.3% on Wednesday in a resilient session. Today featured disappointing quarterly results and guidance from Caterpillar (CAT 135.34, +1.65, +1.2%) and Texas Instruments (TXN 118.95, -9.62, -7.5%), but the broader market was able to withstand the news to close at session highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.2%, the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 increased 0.1%.
U.S. Treasuries saw an uptick in demand, which pushed yields lower. The 2-yr yield declined three basis points to 1.58%, and the 10-yr yield declined one basis point to 1.76%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 97.46.
• The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ending October 19 was down 11.9%, as higher mortgage rates pressured interest in refinancing and purchase applications.
• The FHFA Housing Price Index for August increased 0.2% following an unrevised 0.4% increase in July.
Looking ahead, investors will receive New Home Sales for September, Durable Goods Orders for September, and the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report on Thursday.