Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher;
- The odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2934.25 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- Personal Spending (0.6% vs. 0.5% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
- Core PCE Price Index (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Income (0.1% vs. 0.3%; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
- Chicago PMI ( 48.1 vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 44.4) at 9:45 AM
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (92.5 est.; prev. 92.1) at 10:00 AM
- Revise UoM Inflation Expectations (prev. 2.7%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly up – Shanghai closed down
- European markets are higher
- Cotton (Unch.)
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 1.513%, down from August 29 close of 1.516%;
- 30-years is at 1.975%, down from 1.979%
- 2-years yield is at 1.528%, unchanged
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.015 down from -0.012
- Is at 17.16 down from August 29 close of 17.88; below 5-day SMA 18.80
- Recent high was 21.64 on August 28; recent low was 15.51 on August 21
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2921.71, 2915.25 and 2905.67
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2944.01, 2964.19 and 2979.93
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2946.50, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 2940.25, the low of 7:00 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 2924.75 and the index closed at 2924.58 – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 2926.75 for the day; the fair value is -2.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +16.25; Dow by +140 and NASDAQ by +43.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 30-Min: Up
- 15-Min: Up
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, August 29 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume. Major indices gapped up at the open and did not close the gap.
Each of the major U.S. indices rose more than 1.0% on Thursday, lifted by China indicating it wants to prevent trade tensions from further escalating. The S&P 500 (+1.3%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.3%) both increased 1.3%. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%) and Russell 2000 (+1.6%) pulled out ahead.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory. The industrials (+1.8%) and information technology (+1.7%) sectors outperformed amid solid gains in the trade-sensitive transportation and semiconductor spaces. The Dow Jones Transportation Average increased 2.0%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased 2.3%. The consumer staples sector (unch) was unchanged.
• The second estimate for Q2 GDP showed a downward revision to 2.0% annualized growth (Briefing.com consensus 2.0%) from 2.1% annualized growth reported in the advance estimate. The GDP Deflator was unrevised at 2.4%, as expected.
o The key takeaway from the report is that consumer spending growth was revised up to 4.7% from 4.3%, which was the strongest growth since the fourth quarter of 2014. Granted it’s a backward-looking data point, yet it offers a nice reminder that the U.S. consumer, supported by a tight labor market, has remained in good shape.
• Initial claims for the week ending August 24 increased by 4,000 to 215,000, as expected. Continuing claims for the week ending August 17 increased by 22,000 to 1.698 million.
o The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims, which are an important leading indicator, remain low. That will perpetuate the belief that there remains a good underpinning in a tight labor market for continued consumer spending growth.
• The Advance report for International Trade in Goods for July showed a deficit of $72.3 billion following an unrevised deficit of $74.2 billion. Meanwhile, the Advance report for Wholesale Inventories for July increased 0.2%, and the Advance report for Retail Inventories for July increased 0.8%.
• Pending Home Sales declined 2.5% in July (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%). Today’s reading follows an unrevised increase of 2.8% in June.