Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower;
- Drifting down since NYSE close
- The odds are for a sideways to a down day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2935.75 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- PPI (est. 0.2%; prev. 0.1%) at 8:30 AM
- Core PPI ( est. 0.2%; pre. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong were down; Singapore was closed
- European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland is up
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 1.716%, up from August 7 close of 1.684%;
- 30-years is at 2.232%, up from 2.197%
- 2-years yield is at 1.617%, up from 1.605%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.099, up from 0.079
- At 18.53 up from August 8 close of 16.91; Below 5-day SMA 19.90
- Recent high was 24.81 on August 5; recent low was 11.69 on July 25
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2925.31, 2912.77 and 2894.47
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2938.72, 2945.23 and 2964.19
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2930.50, the high of 2:30 AM and break below 2918.00, the low of 7:00 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 2939.00 and the index closed at 2938.09 – a spread of about +1.00 points; futures closed at 2940.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -19.25; Dow by -145 and NASDAQ by -66.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Up-Side
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, August 8. The volume traded was lower than that on Wednesday but higher than the 10-day average. The indices gapped up at the open and then climbed higher and closed near the high for the day.
The stock market finished decisively in the green on Thursday, as trade angst subsided and investors embraced a risk-on mindset. The S&P 500 advanced 1.9%, which extended its two-day comeback to 112 points, or 4.0%, from its session low on Wednesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.4%, the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.2%, and the Russell 2000 increased 2.1%.
Interestingly, the S&P 500 traded just below its 50-day moving average (2934) for most of the afternoon before finally breaking above the key technical level late in the session. The benchmark index held above the level on a closing basis.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher by at least 1.0%. The energy sector (+2.9%) led the advance as oil prices ($52.52/bbl, +$1.38, +2.7%) rebounded, followed by the information technology (+2.4%), communication services (+2.2%), and consumer discretionary (+2.0%) sectors.
U.S. Treasuries were under noticeable selling pressure today, which sent the 10-yr yield up 11 basis points to 1.79% at one point during the session. Buyers gradually came back, ultimately leaving the benchmark yield up three basis points to 1.72%. The 2-yr yield finished also finished three basis points higher at 1.61%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 97.60.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 3 decreased by 8,000 to 209,000 (Briefing.com consensus 213,000). Continuing claims for the week ending July 27 decreased by 15,000 to 1.684 mln.
o The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims continue hovering near multi-decade lows.
• Wholesale inventories were unchanged in June (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) on top of an unrevised 0.4% increase in May. Wholesale sales decreased 0.3% in June after decreasing a revised 0.6% (from +0.1%) in May.
o The key takeaway from the June report and the May revision is that the gap between inventory growth and sales growth is widening, which should exert some pressure on prices.