Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; declining rapidly since 10:30 PM on Monday
- The odds are for a down day – watch for break above 3016.25 for change of fortune
- Watch for emerging Stochastic Bearish Divergence on daily charts
- Key economic data due:
- Core PCE Price Index (est. 0.2%; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Spending (est. 0.3%; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Income (est. 0.4%; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM
- S&P/CS Composite-20-HPI (est. 2.4%; prev. 2.5%) at 9:00 AM
- CB Consumer Confidence (est. 125.1; prev. 121.5) at 10:00 AM
- Pending Home Sales (est. 0.5%; prev. 1.1%) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai closed down
- European markets are lower
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.055%, down from July 26 close of 2.081%;
- 30-years is at 2.583%, down from 2.601%
- 2-years yield is at 1.838%, down from 1.854%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.212, down from 0.227
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3014.30, 3008.56 and 2999.45
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3023.06, 3027.98 and 3031.60
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 3016.25, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 3007.00, the low of 7:30 AM
- On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 3021.50 and the index closed at 3020.97 – a spread of about +0.50 points; futures closed at 3021.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -14.75; Dow by -96 and NASDAQ by -61.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend resumed
- Daily: Uptrend
- 30-Min: Side-Down
- 15-Min: Side-Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
The S&P 500 lost 0.2% on Monday, slipping from record highs in a lackluster session. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) and Russell 2000 (-0.6%) both underperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) managed to finish higher.
Monday’s session didn’t include much price action, as investors appeared to be waiting for several key events later this week. Some of these events will include the FOMC’s rate decision, U.S.-China trade talks, the July employment report, and Apple’s (AAPL 209.68, +1.94, +0.9%) earnings report.
In turn, the S&P 500 consumer discretionary (-0.6%) and communication services (-0.5%) sectors were among today’s laggards but, like the broader market, finished the session off intraday lows.
The S&P 500 financials sector (-0.8%) succumbed to broad-based selling interest throughout the day.
On the other hand, the S&P 500 defensive-oriented sectors — utilities (+0.5%), real estate (+0.5%), health care (+0.4%), and consumer staples (+0.3%) — were the lone sectors that finished higher.
U.S. Treasuries finished the session higher, pushing yields lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield and the 10-yr yield declined three basis points each to 1.84% and 2.06%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index finished flat at 98.04. WTI crude increased 1.2% to $56.87/bbl.