Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving sideways to down since 8:30 AM on Thursday
- The odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2960.00 and break below 2951.75 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI ( 50.1 vs. 50.5 est. ; prev. 50.5) at 9:45 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Shanghai and Singapore closed up
- European markets are mostly lower – Spain and Italy are p
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- NatGas (Unch.)
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.059%, up from June 20 close of 2.001%;
- 30-years is at 2.567%, up from 2.527%
- 2-years yield is at 1.795%, up from 1.785%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.264, down from 0.217
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2946.87, 2937.67 and 231.50
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2958.06, 2961.62 and 2973.12
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2960.00, the high of 3:30 AM and break below 2951.75, the low of 6:00 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2958.50 and the index closed at 2954.18 – a spread of about +4.25 points; futures closed at 2960.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.50; Dow by -409 and NASDAQ by -28.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend under pressure
- Daily: Uptrend resumed
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side
- 6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, June 20 in mixed volume. Russell 2000 closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. S&P 500 made all-time intraday and closing highs. DJIA is close to its highs and NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market index are not far from their all time highs. Other has a lot to catch up.
The S&P 500 advanced 1.0% on Thursday, setting a new intraday high and new record close, bolstered by expectations for easier monetary policy and lower sovereign bond yields.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.5%.
Expectations for lower rates remained the biggest driver in the equity and bond markets. The 10-yr note yield and the 2-yr note yield declined three basis points each to 1.72% and 2.00%, respectively. The lower yields put some pressure on the U.S. dollar (96.65, -0.47, -0.5%) and continued to favor risk assets.
The S&P 500 energy sector led all sectors higher with a gain of 2.2%. The other ten sectors finished with gains between 0.4% (health care) and 1.6% (industrials). The turnaround in the S&P 500 financials sector (+0.5%), which was down as much as 0.6% during the day, contributed to the strong finish in the broader market.
• Initial claims for the week ending June 15 decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000). Continuing claims for the week ending June 8 decreased by 37,000 to 1.662 million.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it covers the period in which the survey for the June employment report was conducted. Accordingly, the low level of initial claims should set an expectation for a solid gain in nonfarm payrolls for June.
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index was unchanged in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.1%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase (from 0.4%) in April.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects an environment of slower economic growth unfolding in the second quarter. According to the Conference Board, the Leading Economic Index increased 0.3% for the six-month period ending May 2019, versus 2.2% growth during the previous six months.
• The Q1 Current Account Deficit was $130.4 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$125.0 billion) versus a downardly revised $143.9 billion (from -$134.4 billion) for the fourth quarter.
• The Philadelphia Fed Index fell to 0.3 (Briefing.com consensus 11.5) from 16.6 in May.