Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving sideways since 9:00 PM n Sunday
- Daily and weekly trends are down
- Odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility (sideways from pre-NYSE open level and down from last close) – watch for break above 2578.25 and break below 2567.25 for more clarity
- No key economic data due
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed down – Tokyo was close
- European markets are lower
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.692%, down from January 11 close of 2.701%;
- 30-years is at 3.033%, down from 3.037%
- 2-years yield is at 2.541%, down from 2.549%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.151, down from 0.152
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2577.79, 2573.51 and 2568.89
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2597.82, 2600.91 and 2619.04
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2577.25, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2567.25, the low of 5:00 AM
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (January contract) closed at 2596.25 and the index closed at 2596.26 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2595.00 for the day; the fair value is +1.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -20.25; Dow by -194; and NASDAQ by -63.75
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Down
- Daily: Down
- 120-Min: Side
- 30-Min: Side-Down
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday January 11. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite closed down. Dow Jones Transportation Average, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed higher. The volume was lower than that on Thursday and the 10-day average.
For the week, the major indices closed higher. The volume was mixed than previous week, which was only four-day week. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite traded in lower volume. All S&P sectors closed higher.
The S&P 500 gained 2.5% this week, rising for the third straight week and extending its rally to x% since its Christmas Eve low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.4%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.5%, and the Russell 2000 gained 4.8%.
All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher with industrials (+4.1%), consumer discretionary (+3.7%), real estate (+4.0%), energy (+3.4%), and information technology (+3.4%) outperforming the broader market.
Separately, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from its December policy meeting. The minutes revealed a view that the path of U.S. monetary policy is “less clear” than before, and a contention that the Fed can “afford to be patient” about future rate hikes.
U.S. Treasuries lost ground amid the gain in equities, pushing yields higher across the curve. The 2-yr yield increased seven basis points to 2.55%, and the 10-yr yield increased four basis points to 2.70%. The U.S. Dollar Index lost 0.5% to 95.68, and WTI crude rose 7.8% to $51.68/bbl.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – December)||Relative Strength (January)||%K vs. %D (January)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||XLY (X-Over)||XLY||Cross-Over|
|Consumer Staples||Down||XLP||SPY (Cross-Under)||Below|
|Industrials||Down||SPY (X-Under)||XLI (Cross-Over)||Cross-Over|
|Utility||Under Pressure||SPY (X-Under)||SPY||Below|
|Heath Care||Down||XLV||SPY (Cross-Under)||Below|
|Real Estate||Down||SPY (X-Under)||SPY||Below|