Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are lower; moving down since 4:30 AM
- Daily and weekly trends are down
- Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility – watch for break above 2590.75 for change of fortune
- Key economic data due:
- CPI ( -0.1% vs. -0.1% est.; 0.0% prev.) at 8:30 AM
- Core CPI ( 0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; 0.2% prev.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney and Mumbai Seoul closed down;
- European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland is up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.697%, down from January 10 close of 2.731%;
- 30-years is at 3.033%, down from 3.051%
- 2-years yield is at 2.537%, down from 2.578%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.160, up from 0.153
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2581.66, 2573.51 and 2568.89
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2597.82, 2600.91 and 2619.04
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2590.75, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2582.50, the low of 8:30 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (January contract) closed at 2596.75 and the index closed at 2596.84 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2594.00 for the day; the fair value is +2.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -7.75; Dow by -60; and NASDAQ by -25.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Down
- Daily: Down
- 120-Min: Side-Up
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Side-Down
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday January 10. Market started the day down but the turned around closed higher. The volume was mixed and mostly lower than the 10-day average. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average and S&P 500 traded in higher volume. Major indices are above 20-day EMA and are nearing a resistance at a prior support level created by the lows created in October 2018.
The S&P 500 gained 0.5% on Thursday, extending its winning streak to five straight sessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.5%.
10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher with real estate (+1.6%), utilities (+1.4%), and industrials (+1.4%) leading the advance. Conversely, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.2%) underperformed.
The S&P 500 lost as much as 0.9% shortly after the start of trading amid a prevailing sense that the broader market may have gotten overbought on a short-term basis. Entering the session, the benchmark index was up 10% from its Christmas eve low.
True to recent form, the S&P 500 climbed back into positive territory and closed near its session high, which was just below the 2600 level.
• Initial claims decreased by 17,000 to 216,000 (Briefing.com consensus 225,000) for the week ending January 5. Continuing claims for the week ending December 29 decreased by 28,000 to 1.722 million.
o The key takeaway from the report is that it fits neatly with the market’s latest awareness that the labor market has held up fine despite the burgeoning concerns about the economy slowing.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month – December)||Relative Strength (January)||%K vs. %D (January)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down||XLY (X-Over)||XLY||Cross-Over|
|Consumer Staples||Down||XLP||SPY (Cross-Under)||Below|
|Industrials||Down||SPY (X-Under)||XLI (Cross-Over)||Cross-Over|
|Utility||Under Pressure||SPY (X-Under)||SPY||Below|
|Heath Care||Down||XLV||SPY (Cross-Under)||Below|
|Real Estate||Down||SPY (X-Under)||SPY||Below|