Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; closed 14 point above the NYSE session close; moving higher since 5:00 AM after retracing from a high of 2785.00 reached at 2:30 AM
- Odds are for an up day with increased volatility
- Key economic data due:
- Import Prices ( 0.5% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 100.4 ) at 10:00 AM
- Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (est. 2.7%0 at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed higher
- European markets are mostly up – Spain is down
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield closed at 3.133%, down from October 10 close of 3.225%;
- 30-years is at 3.307%, down from 3.398%
- 2-years yield is at 2.861%, up from 2.849%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.272, down from 0.376
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2710.51, 2702.71 and 2698.95
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2757.58, 2784.11 and 2795.14
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2777.50, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2764.00, the low of 5:00 AM
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2731.50 and the index closed at 2728.37 – a spread of about +3.00 points; futures closed at 2745.50 for the day; the fair value is -14.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +30.25; Dow by +249.00; and NASDAQ by +111.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Down
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Up-Side
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
Major U.S. indices again closed sharply lower on Thursday October 11 in increased volume. The market suffered the biggest two-day loss since early February 2018. Volatility was elevated. It reached a intraday high of 28.84 from 11.34 on October 3 and 14.82 at the close of session on last Friday.
Wall Street extended Wednesday’s tumble on Thursday in a volatile day of trading. The major averages settled notably lower, with the S&P 500 losing 2.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite shedding 1.3%. With Thursday marking its sixth straight decline, the S&P 500 is now down 5.5% for the week and is 6.9% below its September 20 record close.[…]
A drop in bond yields did provide some relief for stock traders, […] That yield curve flattening weighed on lenders[…]
The S&P 500’s financial sector lost 2.9%. The oil-sensitive energy sector was another notable underperformer, losing 3.1%[…]
All 11 S&P 500 sectors declined on Thursday.
[…]From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 got into trouble once again on Thursday, closing below its 200-day moving average (2766) for the first time since March, after breaching its 50-day moving average the day before. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell below its 200-day moving average (25140) and the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 stayed below theirs.
[…]Also of note, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked once again on Thursday, jumping 11.8% to 25.57, marking its highest level since February.
[…]The key takeaway from the report [CPI} is that it helped temper concerns about rising inflation for the time being, yet with total CPI and core CPI running above the Fed’s longer-run inflation target of 2.0%, it still left little reason to think the Fed is going to back away from a rate hike in December.
[…]The key takeaway from that report [Unemployment Claims] is that it remains reflective of a tight labor market, which will catch the Fed’s eye as a contributing factor for why it can validate the continuation of gradual rate hikes.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend||Relative Strength (Last Month)||Relative Strength (Current)|
|Consumer Discretionary||Down (Break below trading zone – 114.80)||XLY||SPY|
|Consumer Staples||Side (Break Down Support = 53.49)||SPY||XLP|
|Energy||Up (From Side)||SPY||XLE|
|Technology||Up (Under Pressure)||XLK||SPY|
|Heath Care||Up (under Pressure)||XLV||SPY|