Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 2:30 AM
- Odds are for an up and choppy day; elevated volatility
- Key economic data due:
- Core PCE Price Index (0.2% vs. 0.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Spending (0.4% vs. 0,.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Income (0.2% vs. 0.4% est.) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Hong Kong, Sydney, Mumbai and Singapore closed up; Hong Kong was closed; Shanghai, Tokyo and Seoul Closed down;
- European markets are up
- Dollar index
- Crude Oil
- 10-yrs yield is at 3.094%, up from October 26 close of 3.077%;
- 30-years is at 3.322%, up from 3.317%
- 2-years yield is at 2.835%, up from 2.811%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.259, down from 0.266
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2641.82, 2628.16 and 2615.32
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2692.38, 2700.92 and 2722.70
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2700.75, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2689.50, the low of 7:00 AM
- On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2657.25 and the index closed at 2658.69 – a spread of about -1.50 points; futures closed at 2669.50 for the day; the fair value is -12.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up +25.75; Dow by +130; and NASDAQ by +76.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: In Correct
- 120-Min: Down-Side
- 30-Min: Side-Up
- 15-Min: Side-Up
- 6-Min: Up
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
|2-Hour (e-mini future)||
|30-Minute (e-mini future)||
|15-Minute (e-mini future)||
The indices gapped down at the open then turned up after one hour of trading and closed the gap. They declined later in the day and closed near the open. All S&P Sectors were down.
For the week, indices closed down in higher volume. Indices lost more that 3% for the week. Indices are showing signs of break down. All S&P sectors were down for the week.
The stock market just had another terrible, horrible, no good, very bad week, filling in some more blanks on what has been a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad month.
Just how bad has it been? The Russell 2000 is down 12.5% in October; the Nasdaq Composite is down 10.9%; the S&P 500 is down 8.8%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 6.7%.
[…]The worry isn’t about the growth that was just left behind. Rather, it is about the growth to come — or perhaps lack thereof.
There are various explanations regarding the causes of the stock market’s correction: the adverse effect of a strong dollar; the slowdown in China and other foreign markets; tariff issues, raw material price increases; political uncertainty; diplomatic uncertainty; price increases for consumers; rising interest rates; and profit margin pressures.
[…]The clearest evidence that the stock market is wrapped up in worries that future earnings growth won’t live up to expectations is in the third quarter earnings results.
[…]There was nowhere to hide other than in cash and risk-free Treasuries. Yields fell across the curve. The 2-yr note came down 11 basis points to 2.81% and the 10-yr yield dropped 12 basis points to 3.08%.
- S&P 500 Sectors
|Sector||Daily Trend (Visual)||Relative Strength (Last Month)||Relative Strength (Current)|
|Consumer Staples||Under Pressure||SPY||XLP|
|Heath Care||Under Pressure||XLV||XLV|
|Real Estate||Down (Turning Up)||SPY||XLRE|