Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; forming a double bottom on 30-minute chart- Odds are for a sideways to down day with low volume, hence unpredictability; watch for break above 2898.25 and below 2895.00 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Chicago PMI (est. 63.0) at 9:45 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly down – Seoul was up
- European markets are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/CHF
- USD/CAD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- AUD/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Sugar
- Cotton
|
- Crude Oil
- Copper
- Coffee
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield is at 2.833%, down from August 30 close of 2.860%;
- 30-years is at 2.979%, down from 3.006%
- 2-years yield is at 2.633%, down from 2.645%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.200, down from 0.215
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2895.25, 2884.69 and 2875.72
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2905.23, 2912.26 and 2916.50
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2898.25, the high of 8:15 AM and break below 2895.00, the low of 8:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (September contract) closed at 2901.50 and the index closed at 2901.13 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2902.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -6.25; Dow by -63.00; and NASDAQ by -10.00
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend
- Daily: Uptrend
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on August 24 was a green candle with almost no upper and lower shadow; made all time highs on intra-day and closing basis
- Last week’s pivot point=2867.16, R1=2883.69, R2=2892.70; S1=2858.15, S2=2841.62; R1 pivot level was breached;
- A second up week in a row; fourth in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above an ascending triangle but retraced back to its upper limit; 100% extension target is near 3070.00 level
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.44 and the 161.8% extension target near 2835.46 are achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3013.72
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Above 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend
|
Daily
|
- A red spinning top harami candle following a large green candle than made all time highs
- %K is crossed below %D; potential bearish divergence
- Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Declining from a high of 2917.50 at 2:00 PM on August 29; near a support/congestion level at 2894.00
- RSI-9 made a bearish divergence eat 10:00 AM on August 29; in a downtrend since 8:00 PM on August 27; mostly below 40 since 2:00 PM on August 30
- Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below 20-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Forming a descending triangle
- RSI-9 moving mostly below 50 since 9:30 PM on August 29; mostly moving along 40 since 3:00 AM
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is sloping down since 3:45 PM on August 29; new leg down since 5:30 AM
- The band is relatively large for pre-open session
- RSI below 65 since 3:30 PM on August 29; majority of time below 50 and occasionally dipping below 40
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crisscrossing %D near 30; made a bullish divergence at 7:45 AM
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday August 30. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are in danger of making three day evening star pattern. A close below Thursday’s close will complete the pattern. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 made intra-day all time highs but closed down. The volume was mixed. S&P 500 and Dow Transports traded in lower volume and others in higher volume.
| Up |
Down |
- Utility
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday August 30. Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index are in danger of making three day evening star pattern. A close below Thursday’s close will complete the pattern. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 made intra-day all time highs but closed down. The volume was mixed. S&P 500 and Dow Transports traded in lower volume and others in higher volume.
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