Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are lower; moving lower since 2:30 PM on May 16; below a downtrend line of 30-minute chart- Odds are for a down day with a good chance of sideways movement with increased volatility – watch for break above 2721.00 and below 2717.00 for clarity
- Key economic data due:
- Pillly Fed Manufacturing Index (est. 21.1) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (est. 216K) at 8:30 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mostly down – Tokyo was up
- European markets are mostly up – Italy and Switzerland are down
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- AUD/USD
|
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
- USD/INR
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
- Crude Oil
- Silver
- Copper
- Coffee
- Sugar
|
- NatGas
- Gold
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Cotton
- Cocoa
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 3.095% on May 16, up from May 15 close of 2.080%;
- 30-years is at 3.216%, up from 3.209%
- 2-years yield is at 2.594%, up from 2.589%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.506, up from 0.491
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2712.66, 2701.91 and 2693.17
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2727.76, 2733.00 and 2742.10
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2721.00, the high of 6:00 AM and break below 2717.00, the low of 7:00 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2722.75 and the index closed at 2722.46 – a spread of about +0.25 points; futures closed at 2723.00 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.50; Dow by -32.00; and NASDAQ by -28.25
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend resumed
- 120-Min: Up-Side
- 30-Min: Up-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Side-Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on May 11 was a large green candlestick line with very small upper and lower shadows; breaking above a symmetrical triangle
- Last week’s pivot point=2705.32, R1=2755.32, R2=2782.92; S1=2677.66, S2=2627.60; R1 pivot levels was breached;
- An up week; third in last five weeks and fifth in last ten weeks
- A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in breaking above it
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A shaved-bottom green candle with small higher shadow; trying to fill the down gap of Tuesday
- Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
- Uptrend resumes
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving up-to-sideways since 2:00 PM on May 15; broken above the downtrend line from May 14 high but still below the high
- Uptrend since 10:00 AM on May 3 in steps; higher highs and higher lows; within a resistance zone around 2720.00 level
- RSI-9 rising from a low of 18.91 at 6:00 AM on May 15 and a bullish divergence; above 50 after almost touching the 65 level
- At 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Moving up since 2:00 PM on May 15; broken above a downtrend line
- An emerging up-sloping flag on May 15 fizzled out
- RSI moving between 40 and 65 since 7:00 PM on May 15; back near 40
- At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Up-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 4:30 PM on May 16
- The band narrowed during Asian session
- RSI moving between 65 and around 40 since 3:30 PM on May 15
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below %D above 90 at 6:00 AM; below 50
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday May 16 in mixed volume. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in less volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a doji candle stick and NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 are trying to fill the down gap of Tuesday.
| Up |
Down |
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Telecom
|
- Utility
- Real Estate
|
Major U.S. indices advanced on Wednesday May 16 in mixed volume. Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in less volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a doji candle stick and NASDAQ Composite and S&P 500 are trying to fill the down gap of Tuesday.
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