Morning Notes – Tuesday May 8, 2018

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower;
  • Price below a downtrend line on 30-minute chart from the high of 2681.50 reached at 2:30 PM on May 7
  • Odds are for a down day in increased volatility – watch for break above 2672.25 and below 2658.50 for clarity
  • No key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East were mostly up – Seoul was down
  • European markets are mostly lower – U.K. is up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/INR
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
  • Bonds
    • 10-yrs yield is at 2.957%, up from May 7 close of 2.950%;
    • 30-years is at 3.124%, up from 3.120%
    • 2-years yield is at 2.514%, up from 2.506%
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.443, down from 0.444

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2659.03, 2637.14 and 2615.32
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2675.56, 2683.35 and 2698.79
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2672.25, the high of 3:00 AM and break below 2658.50, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (June contract) closed at 2670.25 and the index closed at 2672.63 – a spread of about -2.50 points; futures closed at 2670.00 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.50; Dow by -39.00; and NASDAQ by -13.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min: Down-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on May 4 was a small real body candlestick line with very small upper shadow and very long lower shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point=2646.99, R1=2699.35, R2=2735.29; S1=2611.05, S2=2558.69; S1/S2 pivot levels were breached;
  • A down week; third in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks
  • A symmetrical triangle pattern is emerging; price in the middle of the pattern
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017; Last swing high, 2872.87, was during the week of January 22, 2-018; the low since the last swing high is 2532.69 during the week if February 5, 2018
  • Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
Daily
  • A small doji candle with almost equal sized upper and lower shadow at the 50-day EMA; the index lost most of its day’s gain in the final hour trading mostly due to the geo-political concerns over the fate of Iran nuclear deal
  • In the middle of the symmetrical triangle after breaking below it for a day for the second time
  • Above 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA
  • Uptrend under pressure
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Declining since 2:00 PM on May 7; break above the downtrend line from April 18 high continues
  • Retreated a bit from the top of a horizontal trading range that is emerging since 6:00 PM on April 22
  • RSI-9 made a bearish divergence with price at 8:00 AM on May; declining since 12:00 AM on May 7; below 50 and seems to be bouncing just above 40
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Staying above prior resistance that was broken to the upside on May 4; forming a horizontal channel between 2658.00 and 2681.50
  • RSI below a downtrend line from the high RSI at 2:00 PM on May 4; made a bullish divergence or a double bottom at 5:00 Am and 6:30 AM; approaching 30 from 30
  • At 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
  • Bias: Side
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly moving sideways from 4:000 PM on May 4;
  • The band is narrowed from 4:00 PM to 3:30 AM; expanded slightly since then
  • RSI rising from a low of 19.39 at 5:00; crossing above 50
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a bullish divergence at 6:45; %K above %d since 7:00 AM
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices mostly advanced on Monday May 7 in lower volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average declined in higher volume. The indices were quit high during the day but then gave up most of the gains in the last hour of trading. The price action was affected by geo-political events, namely the fate of Iran nuclear deal.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Industrials
  4. Finance
  5. Technology
  6. Real Estate
  7. Telecom
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Materials
  3. Utility
  4. Heath Care
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