Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are higher; moving higher since 6:30 AM; within a horizontal channel between 2722.50 and 2698.75, since 4:00 PM on Wednesday- Competing forces in play – bearish pressure on daily and 2-hour charts; bounce from oversold on 30-minute and 6-minute charts
- Odds are for a down day I greater volatility – watch for break above 2722.50 for a change of fortunes
- Key economic data:
- Core PCE (0.3% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Personal Spending ( 0.2% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims (210K vs, 226K est.) at 8:30 AM
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 58.7) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East were mixed – Shanghai and Hong Kong were up; Tokyo, Sydney and Mumbai were down; Seoul was closed
- European markets are lower
- Currencies:
| Up |
Down |
- Dollar index
- USD/JPY
- USD/CHF
- NZD/USD
- USD/CAD
|
|
- Commodities:
| Up |
Down |
|
|
- Crude Oil
- NatGas
- Gold
- Silver
- Copper
- Platinum
- Palladium
- Cocoa
- Cotton
|
- Bonds
- 10-yrs yield closed at 2.868% on February 28 down from February 27 close of 2.908%;
- 30-years closed at 3.127%, down from 3.174%
- 2-years yield is at 2.250%, up from 2.266%
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.618 down from 0.642
Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2697.77, 2676.35 and 2648.87
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2735.61, 2748.18 and 2758.18
- Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2722.50 the high of 3:30 AM and break below 2698.00, the low of 6:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2713.50 and the index closed at 2713.83 – a spread of about -0.25 points; futures closed at 2714.50 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +3.50; Dow up by +24.00; and NASDAQ down by -6.50
Directional Bias Before Open
- Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure
- Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure
- 120-Min: Side-Down
- 30-Min: Down-Side
- 15-Min: Down-Side
- 6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
| Monthly |
- Confirmed Uptrend
- December 2017 closed higher; index has been higher for the nine straight months; it has only one down month, March 2017, since October 2016
- Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
|
| Weekly: |
- The week ending on February 23 was a small green candle with almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow following a large green bodied candle with +4.3% advance, which had followed a -5.2% decline previous week
- Last week’s pivot point=2730.94, R1=2764.12, R2=2780.93; S1=2714.13, S2=2680.95; no pivot levels were breached;
- An up week; two in a row, third in last five weeks and seventh in last ten weeks
- Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
- flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
- 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
- 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
- Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
- the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
- 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
- the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
- Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
- Below 10-week EMA; at 39-week SMA and above 89-week SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
Daily
|
- A large red candle with shaved bottom and small upper shadow following bearish engulfing candle; index declining from between 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of decline from February high
- Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
- Bounced off 200-day SMA on February 9
- Below 20-day EMA; at 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
- Uptrend under pressure
|
| 2-Hour (e-mini future) |
- Moving down since 10:00 AM on February 27 in steps; sideways consolidation around 271000 since 4:00 PM on Wednesday
- RSI-9 mostly fluctuating between 25 and 50 since 10:00 AM on February 27
- Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
- Bias: Side-Down
|
| 30-Minute (e-mini future) |
- A horizontal channel is emerging since 4:00 PM on Wednesday – high near 2722.50 and low near 2703.00
- RSI mostly below 50 since 10:30 AM on February 27 with one head-&-shoulder pattern above it
- Below 20-bar EMA which is below 50-bar EMA
- Bias: Down-Side
|
| 15-Minute (e-mini future) |
- Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is moving sideways since 10:00 PM on Wednesday
- The band contracted for few bars after midnight; expanded at 1:30 AM
- RSI is mostly between 40 and 65 since 1:00 AM
- The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K made a bullish divergence at 6:45 AM and is nearing 80
- Bias: Down-Side
|
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices declined on Wednesday February 28, following a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday. The volume was higher except for Dow Jones Transportation Average.
| Up |
Down |
|
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Energy
- Materials
- Industrials
- Finance
- Technology
- Heath Care
- Utility
- Real Estate
- Telecom
|
Major U.S. indices declined on Wednesday February 28, following a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday. The volume was higher except for Dow Jones Transportation Average.
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