Broke below a horizontal channel on 30-minute chart and achieved 61.8% extension; 100% extension target is near 2788.75
Odds are for down day with increased volatility – watch for break above 2813.00 for a change of fortunes
Key economic data due:
Non-Farm Employment Change (200K vs. 181K est.) at 8:30 AM
Average Hourly Earnings (0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) at 8:30 AM
Unemployment Rate ( 4.1% vs. 4.1% est.) at 8:30 AM
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (est. 95.0) at 10:00 AM
Markets Around The World
Markets in the East closed mostly down – Shanghai and Sydney were up
European markets are down
Currencies:
Up
Down
Dollar index
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
Commodities:
Up
Down
Crude Oil
NatGas
Copper
Palladium
Sugar
Cotton
Cocoa
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Coffee
Cotton
Bonds
10-yrs yield is at 2.788% up from February 1close of 2.730%;
30-years closed at 3.031% up from 3.005%
2-years yield is at 2.162% up from 2.165%
The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.636 up from 0.608
Key Levels:
Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2812.70, 2807.54 and 2795.40
Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2835.96, 2839.26 and 2851.48
Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2811.75, the low of 8:30 PM on February 1 and break below 2797.00, the low of 5:00 AM
Pre-Open
On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (March contract) closed at 2822.00and the index closed at 2821.98 – a spread of about +0.00 points; futures closed at 2822.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -20.50; Dow by -244.00; and NASDAQ by -35.50
Directional Bias Before Open
Weekly: Up
Daily: Up
120-Min: Up-Side
30-Min: Down
15-Min: Down
6-Min: Down
The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:
The week ending on January 26 was a large body green candle, with almost no upper and lower shadows
Last week’s pivot point 2851.29 R1=28294.45 R2=2916.04; S1=2829.70, S2=2786.54; R1/R2/R3 were breached;
An up week; fourth in last five weeks and ninth in last ten weeks
Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2687.41 is achieved; the 100% extension target is near 2913.13
Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole near 2704.63 is achieved; the 261.8% extension target is near 3088.34
Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
Confirmed uptrend
Daily
Confirmed Uptrend
Gap created on January 30 is still active; a near shooting star candlestick; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from previous low, of down-sloping flag on December 29, is near 2798.00
Last big pattern, a down-sloping flag in June 2017, was broken to the upside on July 13, 2017; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag; since then the index has made three very small flags; it broke to the upside of the last flag on January 2
Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
2-Hour (e-mini future)
Broke below the horizontal channel that was broken to the upside once; at 100% extension of the channel; below a downtrend line form the high
RSI-9 made triple top around 54 after falling below 25; RSI is near 25 again; RSI indicating down move will continue
Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions; again under pressure
Below 20-bar EMA, which is below EMA10 of EMA50
Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (e-mini future)
Broke below a horizontal channel that was formed on February 1; high=2837.27, low=2813.00; 61.8% extension target near 2798.00 is achieved; 100% extension target is near 2788.75
RSI-14 is below downtrend line but is challenging it now
Below 20-bar EMA which is below 50-bar EMA
Bias: Down
15-Minute (e-mini future)
Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is mostly down since January 29; an up-sloping flag on BB is forming
The band contracted for a short duration after midnight but is again expanding;
RSI is consistently below 65 for a long time
The Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K rose above 80 after reaching 0; is turning down
Bias: Down
Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday February 1 but the price action was not bullish. Volume was mostly down. Indices were up at the open following a decline before NYSE open but then they gave most of their gains by the end of session.
S&P Futures are lower
Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday February 1 but the price action was not bullish. Volume was mostly down. Indices were up at the open following a decline before NYSE open but then they gave most of their gains by the end of session.
