Morning Notes – Friday December 8, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher; moving up since 2:30 AM on December 6
  • Odds are for an up day  – watch for break below 2643.00
  • Key economic data due:
    • Non-Farm Employment Change (+228K vs. +198K est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Average Hourly Earnings (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.) at 8:30 AM
    • Unemployment Rate (4.1% vs. 4.1% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • GBP/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Gold
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.367% down from December 7 close of 2.374%; 30-years is at 2.767% down from 2.775%; 2-years yield is at 1.80%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2632.71, 2624.75 and 2614,35
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2648.72, 2657.48 and 2665.19
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2648.75, the high of 11:00 AM on December 5 and break below 2643.00, the low of 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2637.50 and the index closed at 2639.98 – a spread of about -0.50 points; futures closed at 2639.50 for the day; the fair value is -2.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.75; Dow by +43.00; and NASDAQ by +50.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Side-to-up
  • 15-Min: Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 1 was a large green candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2632.94; R1=2667.02, R2=2691.81; S1=2608.15, S2=2574.07; R1/R2/R3 were breached
  • An up week;  second in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A bullish engulfing candle with small upper shadow and smaller lower shadow
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2634.83; R1=2643.14, R2=2634.29; S1=2628.68; S2=2620.37; R1/R2 were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting higher since 2:00 AM on December 6 in stairs from near the uptrend line from the lows of November 15
  • 14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on November 21 the future was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the future was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47; on December 4 the RSI-14 was 66.12 and the price was at 2665.25; RSI is rising now
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
  • Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Near a resistance level, the of 2648.50 at 11:30 AM on December 5; a potential double top formation
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving up since December 6 morning
  • The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) is smaller since the close of session on Thursday as compared to during the day session; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.23%)
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) made a negative divergence at 5:30 AM and declined to 7.14 by 6:45 AM and is now turning up
  • At/above 20-bar EMA, which is above 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday December 7. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made bullish engulfing patterns. NASDAQ Composite followed through on its bullish engulfing pattern of Wednesday. S&P 500 and Dow Jones Transportation Average made a 3-day morning star pattern, albeit, without the decline before it.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Technology
  7. Utility
  8. Heath Care
  9. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Staples

 

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