Morning Notes – Thursday December 7, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are down; moving down from the high of 2437.00 at 8:30 PM on Wednesday
  • Crossed below an uptrend line on 30-min chart which is like a break below an up-sloping flag
  • Odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for break above 2634.50 and 2637.00
  • Key economic data due:
    • Unemployment Claims (236K vs. 239K est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Shanghai and Seoul were down
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, Spain and Italy are up; U.K., France, Switzerland and STOXX-600 are down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • EUR/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • GBP/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities:
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Copper
    • Palladium
    • Cotton (unch.)
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.331% up from December 6 close of 2.330%; 30-years is at 2.712% down from 2.719%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2624.75, 2614,35 and 2605.52
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2634.41, 2648.72 and 2657.48
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2634.75, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 2624.00, the low of 10:30 AM on December 6

Pre-Open

  • On Wednesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2629.25 and the index closed at 2629.27 – a spread of about 0.00 points; futures closed at 2629.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.75; Dow down by -61.00; and NASDAQ up by +7.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Down
  • 15-Min: Side-to-Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • The week ending on December 1 was a large green candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow
  • Last week’s pivot point 2632.94; R1=2667.02, R2=2691.81; S1=2608.15, S2=2574.07; R1/R2/R3 were breached
  • An up week;  second in last five weeks and eight in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag on April 24 2017;
    • flag-low was 2322.25 during 27-Mar-17 week; shorter flag-pole length is 317.19 and longer flag-pole length is 590.88;
    • 100% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2639.41 is achieved; and the 161.8% extension target is near 2835.46
    • 61.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2687.41
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016;
    • the flag low was 2083.79 during 31-Oct-16 week; the shorter flag-pole length is 202.13 and the longer flag-pole length is 383.71;
    • 261.8% extension target of shorter flag-pole near 2612.97 is achieved
    • the 161.8% extension target of longer flag-pole is near 2704.63
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A near doji red candle with small upper shadow and smaller lower shadow
  • RSI-14 divergence – on October 20 the RSI was 79.65 and the 2578,29, on November 8 the high was 2595.47 and the RSI was 72.50; on November 30, RSI-14 was 76.67 and the index was at 2657.74
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13; in August the index declined and tested the broken upper limit of the flag
  • Above 20-day EMA but above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2629.48; R1=2634.20, R2=2639.14; S1=2624.54; S2=2619.82; No levels were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting down in stairs after making a high of 2665.25 at 8:00 AM on December 4; near an uptrend line from the lows of November 15
  • 14-bar RSI continues to flash divergence – on November 21 the future was at 2600.50 and the RSI was at 75.8, on Sunday the future was at 2603.50 and the RSI at 64.47; on December 4 the RSI-14 was 66.12 and the price was at 2665.25
  • Sequence of higher highs and higher lows since 10:00 AM on November 2 and since August 29 with few exceptions is reasserted on November 21; it is again under pressure
  • Below falling 20-bar EMA, which is below falling 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Crossing below an uptrend line from the low of 2620.00 at :30 AM on December 6; potential to make an up sloping flag
  • Below falling 20-bar EMA, which is at/below falling 50-bar EMA
15-Minute (e-mini future)
  • The emerging ascending triangle pattern did not materialize
  • Envelop and Bollinger Band are mostly moving down since December 4 in a wave pattern
  • The Bollinger Band (20 EMA, 2 stddev.) contracted from 11:30 PM to 2:00 AM; since then it is expanding very slowly; contained within the envelop (20 EMA, 0.272%)
  • The Stochastic (9, 1, 3) reached 0.00 at 7:45 AM
  • Below 20-bar EMA, which is below 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed down on Wednesday December 6. NASDAQ Composite was up. The day’s range was small for most and the indices fluctuated around previous day’s close.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Industrials
  3. Technology
  4. Utility
  5. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Materials
  4. Finance
  5. Heath Care (unch.)

 

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