Morning Notes – Wednesday November 1, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Drifting higher since 8:30 PM on October 30
  • Odds are for an up – watch for break below 2579.25 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (235K vs. 202K est.) at 8:15 AM
    • ISM Manufacturing PMI (est. 59.5) at 10:00 AM
    • FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate at 2:00 PM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • NatGas
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.385% up from October 31 close of 2.376%; 30-years is at 2.864% down from 2.875%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2574.98, 2568.25 and 2565.94
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2580.03, 2582.98 and 2585.48
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2584.00, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2579.75, the low of 5:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Tuesday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2572.00 and the index closed at 2575.26 – a spread of about 3.25 points; futures closed at 2572.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +10.00; Dow by +128.00; and NASDAQ by +28.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A near doji candle close to all time high;
  • Last week’s pivot point 2569.35; R1=2594.70, R2=2608.33; S1=2555.72, S2=2530.37; S1 was breached after three weeks
  • An up week – seventh in last five weeks; ninth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A small doji haram candle within another harami candle
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2575.23; R1=2578.32, R2=2581.37; S1=2572.18, S2=2569.09; No levels were breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Breaking above a horizontal channel – high of 2577.25 and low near 2542.50; first target is near 2596.00
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 6:00 PM October 22 has broken; a new reverse sequence is being established
  • Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, which is above recently rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving higher since 8:30 PM on October 30; breaking above a rounding bottom pattern or a descending triangle; target near 2596.00
  • Above a rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices advanced on Tuesday October 31. Dow Jones Transportation Average declined. Most indices also made a harami pattern. S&P 500, Dow  Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made doji harami candles. NASDAQ Composite made a small bordied spinning top candle that was completely above previous day’s real body. Russell 2000 made large body harami candle that was more like a piercing pattern. DJT is breaking down.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Energy
  4. Materials
  5. Technology
  6. Utility
  7. Real Estate
  1. Industrials
  2. Finance
  3. Heath Care

 

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