Morning Notes – Tuesday October 31, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Drifting higher since 8:30 PM on October 30; at a down trend line from the high of 2580.75 on October 27
  • Odds are for an up to sideways day – watch for break above 2575.00 and below 2471.00 for change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • Employment Cost Index (0.7% vs. 0.7% est.) at 8:30 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower –  Shanghai and Seoul were up
  • European markets are mostly higher – Italy is down; Germany is closed
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.370% on October 30 down from October 27 close of 2.428%; 30-years closed at 2.880% down from 2.936%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2568.25, 2565.94 and 2559.80
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2580.03, 2582.98 and 2585.48
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2573.75, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2571.25, the low of 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2569.00 and the index closed at 2572.83 – a spread of about 2.75 points; futures closed at 2568.25 for the day; the fair value is -0.75
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +5.00; Dow by +29.00; and NASDAQ by +24.00

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Up-to-Side
  • 30-Min: Up-to-Side

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
Weekly:
  • A near doji candle close to all time high;
  • Last week’s pivot point 2569.35; R1=2594.70, R2=2608.33; S1=2555.72, S2=2530.37; S1 was breached after three weeks
  • An up week – seventh in last five weeks; ninth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend
Daily
  • A red harami candle with large body green candle that gapped up from previous one
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2573.70; R1=2579.16, R2=2585.48; S1=2567.38, S2=2561.92; S1 was breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting lower since the high of 2580.75 was made at 2:00 PM on October 27; bouncing off the 20-bar EMA
  • In a horizontal channel – high of 2577.25 and low near 2542.50; approaching the upper limit after a brief retreat from it
  • Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since 6:00 PM October 22 has broken; a new reverse sequence hasn’t yet established
  • Above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is above flattening 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Slight upward move since 12:00PM on October 30; nearing the down trend line form the high of 2580.75 on October 27
  • Above a recently rising 20-bar EMA, which is crossing above a recently rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices declined on Monday October 30. S&P 500 declined for the third times on Monday in last five weeks. It was up four times on Friday during this period.

S&P 500 and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made a red harami candle within a large green candle. NASDAQ Composite made a harami doji near Friday’s close. Russell 2000 made a bearish engulfing pattern.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Technology
  3. Utility
  4. Real Estate
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Industrials
  5. Finance
  6. Heath Care

 

Print Friendly, PDF & Email