Morning Notes – Monday September 25, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Moving down after finding resistance at a down trend line at 7:30 PM on Sunday
  • Broken below an uptrend line at 1:00 Am and now finding resistance at it after a bounce
  • Odds are for a down to sideways day – watch for break above 2499.00 and below 2495.00
  • No Key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Tokyo and Sydney were up; Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai and Seoul were down; the intra-day trend was mostly down for the day with some late recovery
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, Italy, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up; U.K. France and Spain are down; down; U.K., France, Italy and Switzerland are up; intra-day trend is mostly down-to-sideways
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.250% down from September 22 close of 2.262%; 30-years is at 2.780% down from 2.796%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2496.54, 2493.16 and 2490.37
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2503.47, 2508.82 and 2511.88
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2499.00, the high of 7:30 AM and break below 2495.00, the low of 3:00 AM


  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2499.00 and the index closed at 2502.22 – a spread of about 3.25 points; futures closed at 2499.50 for the day; the fair value is -0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.25; Dow down by -13.00; and NASDAQ down by -18.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
  • A green shaven top and shaven bottom candle that gapped up from previous day’s red harami candle; all time highs after a brief – seven week pullback
  • Last week’s pivot point 2491.66; R1=2508.80, R2=2517.37; S1=2483.09, S2=2465.95; R1/R2/R3 were breached; support levels not breached for four weeks
  • An up week – third in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
  • A green candle near the close or Thursday, making it a Thrusting Pattern; opened at the lows and then moved sideways before moving higher in the last hour of trading
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2500.74; R1=2504.95, R2=2507.67; S1=2498.02, S2=2493.81; S1 was breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • In a downtrend since high of 2506.75 at 2:00 PM on September 20; a bounce up on Sunday, September 24, was repulsed at the downtrend line
  • Bounced off the lower limit of a horizontal channel – high near 2507.00 and low near 2496.75 – on September 22
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  • At/below drooping 20-bar EMA, which is at 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving, mostly, down since the of high of 2507.25 at  9:30 AM on September 20; Lower high and lower lows since then
  • Break below a symmetrical triangle on September 21 is nullified
  • Broke below an uptrend line from 10:30 PM on September 21 potentially making is a break below an up-sloping flag
  • At/above flattening 20-bar EMA, which is below flattening 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Friday September 22. Dow Jones Industrial Average was the lone index to decline but it too made a doji near the middle of day’s range, indicating indecisiveness. Russell 200 closed at all time high and Dow Jones Transportation Average got nearer to the all time highs. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and DJIA opened near the lows of the day and then stayed flat for most of the day before moving higher in the final hour of trading.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Energy
  3. Industrials
  4. Technology
  1. Consumer Staples
  2. Materials
  3. Finance
  4. Utility
  5. Heath Care
  6. Real Estate (unch.)

For the week, major indices advanced except for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 and DJT had a large green real body with almost no upper and lower shadows. S&P 500 and DJIA had smaller real bodies with upper shadows.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email