Morning Notes – Friday September 22, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower
  • Broken below a symmetrical triangle on 30-minute time-frame at 8:30 PM on September 21
  • The bounce from lows of 2492.00, stalled at the lower limit of the triangle;
  • 61.8% extension target of the patterns is near 2490.00 and the 100% extension is near 2485.25
  • Odds are for a down day – watch for break above 2499.25
  • No Key economic data due:

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Sydney was up; the intra-day trend was down for most; Shanghai recovered in late trading and Sydney trended up from open
  • European markets are mixed – Germany, Spain and STOXX 600 are down; U.K., France, Italy and Switzerland are up; ; intra-day trend is mostly down
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • NZD/USD
    • Dollar index
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/JPY
    • USD/CHF
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Gold
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
    • Crude Oil
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.259% down from September 21 close of 2.278%; 30-years is at 2.794% down from 2.808%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2496.67, 2493.16 and 2490.37
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2505.14, 2508.82 and 2510.41
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2499.25, the high of 6:30 AM and break below 2492.00, the low of 10:30 PM on September 21


  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2499.00 and the index closed at 2500.60 – a spread of about 1.50 points; futures closed at 2501.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.50; Dow down by -35.00; and NASDAQ down by -18.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up
  • Daily: Up
  • 120-Min: Side
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Down

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
  • A green shaven top and shaven bottom candle that gapped up from previous day’s red harami candle; all time highs after a brief – seven week pullback
  • Last week’s pivot point 2491.66; R1=2508.80, R2=2517.37; S1=2483.09, S2=2465.95; R1/R2/R3 were breached; support levels not breached for four weeks
  • An up week – third in last five weeks; sixth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Above 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
  • A small red candle with almost no upper and lower shadow mostly within the lower shadow of Wednesday’s candle
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is re-asserted
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2502.25; R1=2505.51, R2=2510.41; S1=2497.35, S2=2494.09; S1 was breached
  • Confirmed Uptrend
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Decline below Tuesday’s plunge and near the prior support – high of September 12
  • A horizontal channel is emerging – high near 2507.00 and low near 2492.00;
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  • At/below drooping 20-bar EMA, which is at 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Moving, mostly, down since the of high of 2507.25 at  9:30 AM on September 20; Lower high and lower lows since then
  • Broke below a symmetrical triangle at 8:30 PM on September 21; high of 2506.75 and low of 2494.00 and the break is at 2498.00; 61.8% extension target is near 2490.00 and the 100% extension target is near 2485.25
  • Below falling 20-bar EMA, which is below falling 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday September 21. Dow Jones Transportation Average was the lone index to advance but it too made a doji near the middle of day’s range.

The day’s range was small and most of the decline occurred in the early session. The trend was gradual decline with sideway move during the mid-day trading.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Energy
  2. Industrials
  3. Finance
  1. Consumer Discretionary
  2. Consumer Staples
  3. Materials
  4. Technology
  5. Utility
  6. Heath Care
  7. Real Estate


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