Morning Notes – Tuesday September 12, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Moving higher after a shallow round arc retracement before Asian session
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2485.25 for a change of fortunes
  • Key economic data due:
    • JOLTS Job Opening (est. 5.96M) at 10:00 AM

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher – the intra-day trend was mostly to the upside
  • European markets are mostly higher – U.K. is down; intra-day trend is up
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • USD/CAD
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • Crude Oil
    • NatGas
    • Palladium
    • Cocoa
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Copper
    • Platinum
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 2.125% on September 11 up from September 8 close of 2.061%; 30-years closed at 2.738% up from 2.679%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2480.99, 2472.2 and 2459.99
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2493.20, 2498.29 and 2507.63
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2490.00, the high of 7:00 AM and break below 2485.25, the low of 11:30 PM on September 11


  • On Monday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2485.50 and the index closed at 2488.11 – a spread of about 2.50 points; futures closed at 2485.75 for the day; the fair value is -0.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 7:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.75; Dow by +59.00; and NASDAQ by +13.75

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up-to-Side
  • Daily: Up-to-Side
  • 120-Min: Side-to-Up
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
  • A red harami candle within a large green candle for the week ending on Friday September 8; almost 1.2% below all time high of 2490.87 reached during the week ending on August 11
  • Last week’s pivot point 2459.98; R1=2473.42, R2=2485.40; S1=2448.00, S2=2434.56; none of the resistance or support levels were breached
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Bouncing off 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
  • A green candle that gapped up with no upper or lower shadow; all time closing high but not intra-day
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is nullified when price broke below 2430.00; however, the index was below 2430.00 for only one day and the pattern may be revived
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2483.86; R1=2493.20, R2=2498.29; S1=2478.77, S2=2469.43; R1/R2/R3 were breached
  • Uptrend under pressure; mostly moving sideways since June 2 between 2490.00 and 2410.00
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures moving higher since September 5 low making an ABCD type pattern; first target, CD=AB near 2478.75, is achieved; second target CD=AB*1.618 is near 2493.25
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  •  Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Continue to rise higher after a gap up open for the week on Sunday September 10
  • Breaking up from a sideways move since 8:30 AM on August 31 between 2479.50 and a low of 2455.50
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday September 11 after a gap up open. The gap was not filled during the day. The intra-day trend was mostly up till 12:30 PM and then sideways.

Most indices are few points off their all time highs reached in July 2017. Dow Transportation Average and Russell 2000 have more to catch up.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
Up Down
  1. Industrials
  2. Finance
  3. Utility
  4. Heath Care
  5. Real Estate
  6. Consumer Discretionary
  7. Consumer Staples
  8. Energy
  9. Materials
  10. Technology


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