Morning Notes – Monday September 11, 2017

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher
  • Gapped up at the week’s open on September 10 and maintaining the gap
  • Odds are for an up day – watch for break below 2466.75 for a change of fortunes
  • No Key economic data due

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed higher – the intra-day trend was mostly to the upside
  • European markets are higher – markets rose with a gap at the open and haven’t filled the gap; since 4:00 AM mostly moving sideways
  • Currencies:
    Up Down
    • Dollar index
    • USD/JPY
    • GBP/USD
    • USD/CHF
    • NZD/USD
    • EUR/USD
    • AUD/USD
    • USD/CAD
  • Commodities are mostly down
    Up Down
    • NatGas
    • Copper
    • Crude Oil
    • Gold
    • Silver
    • Platinum
    • Palladium
    • Sugar
    • Coffee
    • Cotton
    • Cocoa
  • 10-yrs yield is at 2.106% up from September 8 close of 2.061%; 30-years is at 2.7170% up from 2.679%

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2459.40, 2452.82 and 2446.55
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2471.97, 2480.38 and 2490.87
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2475.00, the high of 4:30 AM and break below 2471.50, the low of 7:30 AM


  • On Friday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (December contract) closed at 2459.75 and the index closed at 2461.43 – a spread of about 1.75 points; futures closed at 2461.00 for the day; the fair value is -1.25
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the upside – at 9:15 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.00; Dow by +122.00; and NASDAQ by +44.50

Directional Bias Before Open

  • Weekly: Up-to-Side
  • Daily: Up-to-Side
  • 120-Min: Side-to-Up
  • 30-Min: Side-to-Up

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Confirmed Uptrend
  • Uptrend resumption since Feb 08, 2016 after a pull back of -15.2%
  • A red harami candle within a large green candle for the week ending on Friday September 8; almost 1.2% below all time high of 2490.87 reached during the week ending on August 11
  • Last week’s pivot point 2459.98; R1=2473.42, R2=2485.40; S1=2448.00, S2=2434.56; none of the resistance or support levels were breached
  • A down week – third in last five weeks; fourth in last ten weeks
  • Broke above a down sloping flag (2378.36) on April 24, which has bullish implications; first target is near 2520.00 and the second target is near 2640.00
  • Broke above a down-sloping flag on November 14, 2016; first target of 2285.92 is achieved; second target is near 2467.50
  • Last swing low, 2322.25, was the low on March 27, 2017
  • Bouncing off 10-week EM; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA
  • Confirmed uptrend, though pulling back and moving sideways since June 5
  • A small almost a doji candle within the real body of Tuesday 6, another indecisive day;
  • Last pattern, a down-sloping flag in June that was broken to the upside on July 13, is nullified when price broke below 2430.00; however, the index was below 2430.00 for only one day and the pattern may be revived
  • Above 20-day EMA, which is above 50-day EMA; Above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA
  • Pivot Point=2462.65; R1=2465.89, R2=2470.36; S1=2458.18, S2=2454.94; Only S1 was breached
  • Uptrend under pressure; mostly moving sideways since June 2 between 2490.00 and 2410.00
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Futures moving higher since September 5 low making an ABCD type pattern; CD=AB target is near 2478.75 and CD=AB*1.618 is near 2493.25
  • Sequence of higher high and higher low since 12:00 PM September 5
  •  Above recently rising 20-bar EMA, which is above a recently rising 50-bar EMA
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Rising higher after a gap up open for the week on Sunday September 10
  • Effectively moving sideways since 8:30 AM on August 31 between 2479.50 and a low of 2455.50
  • Above rising 20-bar EMA, which is above rising 50-bar EMA

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday September 8. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average and NYSE Composite closed higher. S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index closed lower. The range was small and many made another almost doji like patterns. The range for most was also within the real body of Tuesday, September 6.

  • S&P 500 Sectors
    Up Down
    • Industrials
    • Finance
    • Utility
    • Heath Care
    • Real Estate
    • Consumer Discretionary
    • Consumer Staples
    • Energy
    • Materials
    • Technology

For the week, only Do Jones Transportation Average was up. The S&P 500 sectors up for the week were – Consumer Staples, Energy, Utility Health Care and Real Estate.


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