Morning Notes – Friday September 23, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

S&P 500 eMini Futures - 23-Sep-16 8:00 AM

  • The futures are drifting down since early Asian session
  • S&P 500 has been down 5 out of last 6 Fridays
  • Odds are for a down day
  • Key levels for eMini futures: break above 2174 for bulls and break below 2152 for bears
  • Markets in the East were mostly down – Australia and South Korea bucked the trend; Japan started the down move and was joined by China, Hong Kong and India
  • European markets are mostly down after four consecutive up closes for the week
  • On Thursday, at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Dec contract) closed at 2168.75 and the index closed at 2177.18 – a spread of about 8.50 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2172.49, 2165.11 and 2157.25
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2181.03, 2187.71 and 2193.30
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the down side; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.75, Dow by -14.00 and NASDAQ by -7.75

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
  • Current uptrend under pressure
  • Fallen below an up-trending 10-week SMA
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
  • Last swing low, 1991.68, was reached on June 27, 2016
  • Uptrend remains under pressure
  • Thursday followed through Wednesday with a gap-up open and retained the gap by the close
  • Price in the middle of the rectangle trading range that was broken on September 9
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Finding resistance at the upper limit of the gap-down following September 8 close at 6:00 PM
  • Reached the 100% target from the break above a rectangle box
  • Higher high and higher lows since 10:00 PM on September 22
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Higher high and higher lows since midnight September 21
  • Drifting downward since 10:30 PM on Thursday
  • Bias is to the upside but poised for a retracement before doing that

Before NYSE Session Open

NASDQ Composite - 22-September-16Thursday followed through on the FOMC fueled rally on Wednesday. Buoyed by the strongly up global equity markets, major U.S. indices gapped-up higher at the open and maintained the gap till the end.

S&P 500 closed at 2177.18, which is still lower than September 8 close of 2181.30 but $VIX, the S&P Volatility Index, closed below its corresponding close.

NASDAQ Composite still remains the best looking chart. It followed through on its break above the rectangle congestion box on Wednesday with a potential target near 5430 level.

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