Market Diary – Wednesday Aug 31, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

ES_2Hr_160831_1

  • The futures are directionless
  • S&P future are fluctuating between 2175.75 and 2172.50 since 3:30 PM on Aug 30
  • For the past few days, at NYSE open, the futures were slightly changed and the day’s trading swung both ways with final close modestly changed from previous one
  • Only one trend day (up) in the past four trading days – three down days of less than -4.3 points and one up day of +11 points
  • On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Sept contract) closed at 2175.00 and the index closed at 2176.12 – a spread of about 0.75 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2170.72, 2164.41, and 2160.39
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2177.49, 2183.48 and 2187.94
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is sideways; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 future was down by -1.00, Dow was down by -13 and NASDAQ was down by -3.25

Economic Data:

Report Current Est. Prev.
U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 177K 174K 179K
U.S. Chicago PMI (9:45 AM) 51.5  54.1 55.8
  U.S. Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM)  1.3%  0.7% -0.8% 
 

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
Daily
  • Tuesday was a red harami candlestick indicating indecision
  • A rally above and close above 2193.42 will nullify the abandoned baby top reversal formed on Aug 24
  • 9-period RSI is diverging and showing a downtrend line; for rally to continue the down trend line needs to be broken
  • Uptrend since June 28th with one pullback; last swing low 2147.58 on Aug 2
  • Mostly sideways move since August 5
  • 61.8% retracement from last low is 2116.59
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Drifting lower since 12:00 Noon high of 2182.25 on Aug 29
  • Still in downtrend – lower high, lower lows since 10:; AM on Aug 23; will break if future rise above 2186.75
  • Uptrend line from Aug 2 low was broken on Aug 24; it is acting as a resistance on the bounce
  • A downtrend line since 10:00 AM on Aug 23; a rise to 2185.00 will break it
  • Last pattern – a symmetrical triangle – failed on Aug 24
  • Emerging double top pattern did not last as the price rose above the low of 2165.50 between the two highs of 2190.75 and 2191.50
  • Previous pattern – a rectangle trading range – is morphing into a broadening pattern with horizontal upper limit
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Uptrend since 2:30 PM Aug 26 – higher lows, higher highs; though under a downtrend line with two touches since 10:00 AM on Aug 23
  • Emerging pattern – a down-sloping flag – of Tuesday broke to the down side during 10:00 AM bar
  • Within an ascending triangle since 2:00 PM low of Aug 30 with high of 2176.50

Before NYSE Session Open

TRAN_D_160830_EoDMajor U.S. indices were mixed on Tuesday. The best showing was by Dow Jones Transportation Average, which rose by +49.82 or +0.6%. Unlike, Dow Jones Industrial Average, it has not made a new high since November 2014. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite made harami candlestick pattern indicating indecision.

On Tuesday:

Up Down Last Notes
S&P 500   -4.26 or -0.2%  2176.12
  • Critical resistance of 2187.94, the Aug 26 high
Dow Jones Industrial Average    -48.69 or -0.3% 18454.30
  • At 50-day EMA
NASDAQ Composite   -9.34 or -0.2% 5222.99
  • Just above 50-day EMA
Russell 2000 +1.09 or +0.1%   1246.03

Still Asian Session

Asian bourses were mixed on Wednesday:

Up Down Last Notes
Shanghai Composite  +10.81 or +0.4%   3085.49
  • A down-sloping flag is in progress since Aug 15, which was 2016  high
  • 50-day EMA crosses above 200-day SMA
Hang Seng   -39.23 or -0.2%  22976.88
  • Next resistance – 2016 high of 23193.90
Nikkei 225  +162.04 or +1.0%   16887.40
  • At a resistance level – upper limit of an ascending triangle on daily charts
S&P/ASX 200   -45.30 or -0.8%  5433.00
  • Broken below critical support of 5465.70 forming an ABCD pattern with target near 5370 level
Sensex  +109.16 or +0.4%   28452.17
  • Follow through on the break of the resistance of the upper limit of a rectangle trading box in progress since Jul 12; target near 28950
Kospi Composite   -5.09 or -0.2%  2034.65
  • Still in a uptrend on daily timeframe; last swing low 1993.00 reached on Aug 3

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mixed at 8:30 AM.

Up Down Last Notes
DAX   -26.09 or -0.2%  10631.55
  • Broken above weekly downtrend line since April 2015 and with two touches
  • At 89-week SMA
FTSE-100  -0.74 or -0.0% 6820.06
  •  At 20-day EMA
CAC-40  +20.74 or +0.5%   4478.23
IBEX  +74.80 or +0.8%   8760.20
FTSE MIB +115.74 or +0.7%   17008.27
Swiss Market Index   -7.41 or -0.1%  8228.60
STOXX 600 +0.65 or +0.2%   345.40

Currencies

Up Down Last Notes
US Dollar Index  +0.179   96.220
  • Resistance at 96.465
EUR/USD   -1.0 pips  1.11243
GBP/USD   -51 pips  1.30950
USD/JPY +5.0 pips   103.472

Commodities

Up Down Last Notes
WTI Crude    -0.45 or -1.0% 45.90
Natural Gas  +0.011 or +0.4%   2.838
Gold   -7.8 or -0.6%  1309.90
Silver +0.013 or +0,1%    18.59
Copper -0.0010 or -0.0%  2.0680

Yields

Up Down Last Notes
30-Year Treasury +1.2 basis points   2.246%
10-Year Treasury +0.5 basis points   1.575%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 rose above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Chance
Level Break
Chance
Pivot 2176.27 2175.08
R1 2182.12 59% 2181.67 55%
R2 2188.13 43% 2188.08 32%
R3 2193.98 46% 2194.67 27%
S1 2170.26 36% 2168.67 36%
S2 2164.41 34% 2162.08 27%
S3 2158.40 24% 2155.67 19%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break chance comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

Market Diary – Tuesday Aug 30, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

ES_2Hr_160830_2

  • The futures are directionless
  • S&P future are sideways since 11:00 AM on Monday
  • According to Stock Trader’s Alamanc, on the second to last trading day of August S&P 500 was up only 23.2% of times
  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Sept contract) closed at 2179.25 and the index closed at 2180.38 – a spread of about 1.00 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2174.00, 2170.19, and 2164.73
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2183.48, 2187.75 and 2193.42
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is sideways; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 future was up by +2.00, Dow was up by +12 and NASDAQ was up by +2.50

Economic Data:

Report Current Est. Prev.
U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller 5.1%  5.1% 5.2%
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM)   97.2 9.3
     
 

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
Daily
  • Monday was bullish engulfing candlestick
  • A rally above and close above 2193.42 will nullify the abandoned baby top reversal formed on Aug 24
  • 9-period RSI is diverging and showing a downtrend line; for rally to continue the down trend line needs to be broken
  • Uptrend since June 28th with one pullback; last swing low 2147.58 on Aug 2
  • Mostly sideways move since August 5
  • 61.8% retracement from last low is 2116.59
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Still in downtrend – lower high, lower lows since 10:; AM on Aug 23; will break if future rise above 2186.75
  • Uptrend line from Aug 2 low was broken on Aug 24; it is acting as a resistance on the bounce
  • A downtrend line since 10:00 AM on Aug 23; a rise to 2185.00 will break it
  • Last pattern – a symmetrical triangle – failed on Aug 24
  • Emerging double top pattern did not last as the price rose above the low of 2165.50 between the two highs of 2190.75 and 2191.50
  • Previous pattern – a rectangle trading range – is morphing into a broadening pattern with horizontal upper limit
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Uptrend since 2:30 PM Aug 26 – higher lows, higher highs
  • Last pattern – ascending triangle broke to the upside
  • Emerging pattern – a down-sloping flag with high of 2182.25 – since 1:30 PM on Aug 29

Before NYSE Session Open

SPX_D_160829_EoDMajor U.S. indices bounced back from the Friday decline following a wild swing due to differing interpretation of Chair Yellen’s and Vice-Chair Fischer’s comments. Monday’s economic news was better for the market. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 made bullish engulfing candlestick formation and Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ composite gapped up at the open and closed higher.

On Monday:

Up Down Last Notes
S&P 500  +11.34 or +0.5%   2180.38
  • Critical resistance of 2187.94, the Aug 26 high
Dow Jones Industrial Average  +107.59 or +0.6%   18502.99
  • Broken a streak of 3 down days
NASDAQ Composite  +13.41 or +0.3%   5232.33
Russell 2000  +6.91 or +0.6%   1244.94

Still Asian Session

Asian bourses were mixed on Tuesday:

Up Down Last Notes
Shanghai Composite  +4.65 or +0.2%   3074.68
  • A down-sloping flag is in progress since Aug 15, which was 2016  high
Hang Seng  +194.77 or +0.9%   23016.11
  •  Poised to test the 2016 high of 23193.90
Nikkei 225   -12.13 or -0.1%  16725.36
  • A harami candlestick near the high of previous day
S&P/ASX 200  +9.10 or +0.2%   5478.30
  • Closed in the lower quarter of the day’s range following sharp decline on Monday
  • At a critical support of 5465.70; a convincing break below it will form ABCD pattern with target near 5370 level
Sensex  +440.35 or +1.6%   28343.01
  • Broke above the resistance of the upper limit of a rectangle trading box in progress since Jul 12; target near 28950
Kospi Composite  +7.39 or +0.4%   2039.74
  • Still in a uptrend on daily timeframe; last swing low 1993.00 reached on Aug 3

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mostly up at 8:30 AM.

Up Down Last Notes
DAX  +107.03 or +1.0%   10651.47
  • Gap up open
  • Near day’s high
FTSE-100 -1.94 or -0.03%  6836.11
CAC-40  +36.35 or +0.8%   4460.60
  •  Gap up open
IBEX  +81.40   8699.00
  • Gap up open
FTSE MIB +212.55 or +1.3%   16867.77
  • Gap up open
Swiss Market Index  +51.84 or +0.6%   8235.93
  •  Gap up open
STOXX 600 +1.79 or +0.5%   344.99
  • Gap up open

Currencies

Up Down Last Notes
US Dollar Index  +0.262   95.805
EUR/USD   -4.0 pips  1.11634
GBP/USD  +26.0 pips   1.31050
USD/JPY  +17.7 pips   102.497

Commodities

Up Down Last Notes
WTI Crude  +0.32 or +0.7%   47.29
Natural Gas  +0.065 or +2.3%   2.919
Gold   -5.2 or -0.4%  1321.90
Silver   -0.038 or -0.2%  18.73
Copper -0.0040 or -0.2%  2.0705

Yields

Up Down Last Notes
30-Year Treasury +0.7 basis points   2.223%
10-Year Treasury +0.9 basis points   1.575%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 rose above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Chance
Level Break
Chance
Pivot 2178.02 2175.33
R1 2185.84 59% 2186.17 55%
R2 2191.31 43% 2193.08 32%
R3 2199.13 46% 2203.92 27%
S1 2172.55 36% 2168.42 36%
S2 2164.73 34% 2157.58 27%
S3 2159.26 24% 2150.67 19%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break chance comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

Market Diary – Monday Aug 29, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

ES_2Hr_160828_1

  • The futures are directionless
  • Follow through on Friday’s wild swing is possible in either direction
  • An ascending triangle is emerging on 30-minute charts and break in either direction will set the tone for the next few hours
  • S&P500’s swing low of 2168.50 was taken out; next swing low is 2147.58
  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Sept contract) closed at 2168.00 and the index closed at 2169.04 – a spread of about 1.00 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2160.39, 2156.97, and 2147.58
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2173.08, 2184.52 and 2187.94
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is sideways; at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 future was up by +2.00, Dow was up by +12 and NASDAQ was up by +2.50

Economic Data:

Report Current Est. Prev.
U.S. Core PCE Price Index 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
U.S. Personal Spending 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
U.S. Personal Income 0,4% 0,4% 0.3%
 

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
Daily
  • Uptrend under pressure after an abandoned baby top reversal on Aug 24
  • 9-period RSI is diverging and showing a downtrend line
  • Uptrend since June 28th with one pullback; last swing low 2147.58 on Aug 2
  • Mostly sideways move since August 5
  • 61.8% retracement from last low is 2116.59
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend – lower high, lower lows since 10:; AM on Aug 23 following the 30-minute chart
  • Uptrend line from Aug 2 low was broken on Aug 24
  • Last pattern – a symmetrical triangle – failed on Aug 24
  • The current pattern is a rectangle trading range – high 2191.50 and low 2165.50 – was breached on Aug 26, now the price is again within the trading range
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 10:00 AM Aug 23; lower lows, lower highs
  • Last pattern – rectangle trading box that was emerging since 3:30 PM on Aug 24 – failed to emerge
  • Bouncing off after sharp swing on Friday, in the process an ascending triangle is emerging

Before NYSE Session Open

SPX_D_160826_EoDMajor U.S. indices had a wild swing on Friday. First Chair Yellen’s speech was received with some relief and the indices rallied. However, then Vice-Chair Fischer’s comments to CNBC dampened the mood and the market fell – S&P 500 lost more than 26 points by falling from a post-Yellen speech high of 2187.94 to post-Fischer comments of 2160.39. However, indices recovered from the lows and closed the day with modest losses despite wild intraday swing. NASDAQ Composite even closed up for the day.

On Friday:

Up Down Last Notes
S&P 500   -3.43  (-0.2%) 2169.04
  • Critical support of previous swing low of 2168.50 was broken
Dow Jones Industrial Average   -53.01  (-0.3%) 18395.40
  • Next swing low of 18247.79 is fair game now
NASDAQ Composite  +6.72 or +0.1%   5218.92
  • A near doji for the day
  • Bouncing off 20-day EMA
Russell 2000   -1.97 or -0.2%  1238.03
  • Critical level is 1221.72, low reached on Aug 17
  • Still above 20-day EMA

Still Asian Session

Asian bourses were mixed on Monday:

Up Down Last Notes
Shanghai Composite    -0.28 or (-0.0%) 3070.03
  • A down-sloping flag is in progress since Aug 15, which was 2016  high
Hang Seng   -88.20 or (-0.4%)  22821.34
Nikkei 225  +376.78 or +2.3%   16737.49
  • Gap-up open and an abandoned baby bottom reversal in a trading range
S&P/ASX 200   -46.30  (-0.8%) 5469.20
  • Sharp decline nullified the emerging pattern of up-sloping flag on 30-minute chart
  • At a critical support of 5465.70; a convincing break below it will form ABCD pattern with target near 5370 level
Sensex  +120.41 or +0.4%   27902.66
  • Near the lower limit of a rectangle trading box in progress since Jul 12
Kospi Composite   -5.15  (-0.3%) 2032.35
  • Still in a uptrend on daily timeframe; last swing low 1993.00 reached on Aug 3

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mixed at 8:30 AM.

Up Down Last Notes
DAX   -61.68 (-0.6%) 10526.09
FTSE-100  +26.00 or +0.36%   6844.00
CAC-40   -33.14 or (-0.7%)  4408.73
IBEX   -53.40 (-0.6%) 8606.10
FTSE MIB    -204.93 (-1.2%) 16639.06
Swiss Market Index  +9.54 or +0.1%   8177.86
STOXX 600   -1.09 (-0.3%) 342.63

Currencies

Up Down Last Notes
US Dollar Index  +0.228   95.770
EUR/USD   -1.7 pips  1.11645
GBP/USD   -1.0 pips  1.30680
USD/JPY  +1.3 pips   102.245

Commodities

Up Down Last Notes
WTI Crude    -0.77 or -1.6% 46.87
Natural Gas   -0.001 or -0.0% 2.870
Gold   -1.9 or -0.1%  1324.00
Silver   -0.056 or -0.3%  18.60
Copper -0.0010 or -0.0%  2.0775

Yields

  • U.S. Treasury yields are down for the day so far
  • 30-year yield is down by -5.4 basis points to 2.240% and 10-year is down by -1.6 basis points to 1.561%
Up Down Last Notes
30-Year Treasury -5.0 basis points 2.246%
10-Year Treasury -4.0 basis points 1.595%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is belo its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Chance
Level Break
Chance
Pivot 2172.46 2170.92
R1 2184.52 27% 2184.33 26%
R2 2200.01 41% 2200.17 30%
R3 2212.07 46% 2213.58 25%
S1 2156.97 25% 2155.08 25%
S2 2144.91 52% 2141.67 43%
S3 2129.42 45% 2125.83 35%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is below 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break chance comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

Market Diary – Friday Aug 26, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

ES_2Hr_160826_1

  • The futures are directionless and awaiting Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole at 10:00 AM
  • Swing low of 2168.50 is critical for S&P 500
  • On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P future (Sept contract) closed at 2171.75 and the index closed at 2172.47 – a spread of about 0.75 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2168.50, 2164.48, and 2159.21
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2179.72, 2183.00 and 2186.99
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is sideways; at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 future was up by +0.50, Dow was up by +2 and NASDAQ was down by -2.75

Economic Data:

Report Current Est. Prev.
U.S. Prelim GDP (8:30 AM) 1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
U.S. Prelim GDP Price Index (8:30 AM) 2.3% 2.2% 2.2%
U.S. Goods Trade Balance -59.3B -62.3B -63.3B
 

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
Daily
  • A narrow range Thursday at the lows of Wednesday, which was an abandoned baby top reversal near all time high
  • 9-period RSI is diverging and showing a downtrend line
  • Uptrend since June 28th with one pullback; last swing low 2147.58 on Aug 2
  • Mostly sideways move since August 5.
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Uptrend – higher under pressure; next swing low of 2165.50 is critical
  • Last pattern – a symmetrical triangle, which was broken to the upside – is nullified
  • Also failed to materialize is an ascending triangle, which was emerging
  • The current pattern is a rectangle trading range – high 2191.50 and low 2165.50 – with price bouncing off the lower bound
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 10:00 AM Aug 23; lower lows, lower highs
  • Since 3:30 PM on Aug 24, a rectangle trading box is emerging with high of 2177.25 and low of 2167.50 reached at 11:00 AM and 3:00 PM respectively on Thursday
  • A narrow band since 4;00 PM NYSE close on Thursday

Before NYSE Session Open

SPX_D_160825_EoDMajor U.S. indices traded in a narrow range following the abandoned baby top pattern on Wednesday. Thursday started with S&P 500 future -5.00 below previous close. The Index made a low of 2167.75 within the first half of trading, which was tested during the last hour and was not broken. The high was reached at 11:00 AM and then the markets generally drifted lower.

On Thursday:

Up Down Last Notes
S&P 500   -2.97  (-0.1%) 2172.47
  • Thursday low of 2169.74 and previous swing low of 2168.50 are critical
Dow Jones Industrial Average   -33.07  (-0.2%) 18448.41
  • Is at the lowest point since Aug 5, which was a gap-up open day
  • Gap between 18402 and 18397.87 is critical
NASDAQ Composite   -5.49  (-0.1%) 5212.20
  • Is at the previous swing low of 5197.23
Russell 2000 +2.75 or +0.2%   1240.00
  • Critical level is 1221.72, low reached on Aug 17

Still Asian Session

Asian bourses were mixed on Friday:

Up Down Last Notes
Shanghai Composite +1.98 or +0.1%   3070.31
  • A down-sloping flag is in progress since Aug 15, which was 2016  high
Hang Seng +82.67 +0.4%   22909.54
  •  Facing resistance at down trend line from Aug 17 high on 30-minute charts
Nikkei 225   -195.24  (-1.2%) 16360.71
  • Gap-down open and a large red candle day
  • Next support at 15921.04, low of Aug 4
S&P/ASX 200   -26.40  (-0.5%) 5515.50
  • At the uptrend line from the low of Aug 3; if broken it will form a up-sloping flag with target near 5428
Sensex   -53.66  (-0.2%) 27782.25
  •  Near the lower limit of a rectangle trading box in progress since Jul 12
Kospi Composite   -5.42  (-0.3%) 2037.50
  • Still in a uptrend on daily timeframe; last swing low 1993.00 reached on Aug 3

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mixed at 7:30 AM, most forming a doji in a narrow trading range

Up Down Last Notes
DAX   -25.12 (-0.2%) 10504.47
  • A doji with high and low so far 30 points away
FTSE-100  +3.13 or +0.06%   6820.03
CAC-40  +0.11 or +0.0%   4406.72
IBEX   -8.40 (-0.1%) 8599.50
FTSE MIB    -80.03 (-0.5%) 16630.75
Swiss Market Index   -26.25 (-0.3%) 8115.03
STOXX 600   -0.32 (-0.1%) 342.02

Currencies

Up Down Last Notes
US Dollar Index   -0.238 94.505
EUR/USD +17.4 pips   1.13014
GBP/USD +27.0 pips   1.32140
USD/JPY   -29.5 pips 100.239

Commodities

Up Down Last Notes
WTI Crude +0.15 or +0.3%   47.48
Natural Gas   -0.028 or -1.0% 2.817
Gold +8.6 or +0.6%    1333.20
Silver  +0.171 or +0.9%   18.66
Copper  +0.0065 (+0.3%)   2.0830

Yields

  • U.S. Treasury yields are down for the day so far
  • 30-year yield is down by -2.4 basis points to 2.240% and 10-year is down by -1.6 basis points to 1.561%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is belo its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Chance
Level Break
Chance
Pivot 2173.74 2172.75
R1 2177.73 27% 2178.00 25%
R2 2183.00 41% 2182.50 30%
R3 2186.99 45% 2187.75 25%
S1 2168.47 25% 2168.25 25%
S2 2164.48 51% 2163.00 42%
S3 2159.21 45% 2158.50 34%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is below 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break chance comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

Market Diary – Thursday Aug 25, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:

ES_2Hr_160825_2

  • The futures are lower following an abandoned baby top on Wednesday for S&P 500
  • Odds are for a down day, though there are some strong support nearby
  • On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P future closed at 2174.25 and the index closed at 2175.44 – a spread of about 1.50 points

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2168.50, 2162.37, and 2153.50
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2179.72, 2184.92 and 2186.66
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures price action is to the downside; at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 future was down by -4.00, Dow was down by -36 and NASDAQ was down by -8.75

Economic Data:

Report Current Est. Prev.
 U.S. Core Durable Goods 1.5% 0.4% -0.4%
 U.S. Core Durable Goods 4.4% 3.4% -3.9%
U.S. Unemployment Claims 261K 265K 262K
U.S. Flash Services PMI (9:45 AM) 51.9 51.4

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500 are:

Monthly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016
Weekly
  • Up trend since Feb 08, 2016 with one pullback; broke out of a 2-year trading range in July, 2016
Daily
  • Abandoned baby top on Wednesday near all time high
  • 9-period RSI divergences and a downtrend line
  • Uptrend since June 28th with one pullback; last swing low 2147.58 on Aug 2
  • Mostly sideways move since August 5.
2-Hour (e-mini future)
  • Uptrend – higher under pressure; next swing low of 2165.50 is critical
  • The beak above a symmetrical triangle at 4:00 AM on Aug 23 failed and the pattern nullified
  • Emerging ascending triangle noted on Aug 24 2016 also failed
  • The current pattern is a rectangle trading range – high 2191.50 and low 2165.50 – with price hovering near the lower bound
30-Minute (e-mini future)
  • Downtrend since 10:00 AM Aug 23; lower lows, lower highs
  • At a double bottom support 2168.75 reached during the last half-hour of NYSE session; intermediate high is 2176.25 reached during early Asian session

Before NYSE Session Open

SPX_D_160824_EoDMajor U.S. indices open the day with a gap down on Wednesday following the gap-up open on Tuesday. A subsequent effort to fill the gap failed in early afternoon and most made an abandoned bay top 3-day reversal formation.

On Tuesday:

Up Down Last Notes
S&P 500    -11.46  (-0.5%) 2175.44
  • Abandoned baby top near all time high
  • At 20-D EMA
Dow Jones Industrial Average    -65.82  (-0.4%) 18481.48
  • Same as S&P 500
  • At lowest since Aug 5 2016
NASDAQ Composite    -42.39  (-0.8%) 5217.69
  • Largest range since Aug 5
Russell 2000    -11.33  (-0.9%) 1237.25
  • Still above 20-D EMA

Still Asian Session

Asian bourses were mixed on Thursday:

Up Down Last Notes
Shanghai Composite   -17.55  (-0.6%) 3068.33
  • An almost dragongfly doji
Hang Seng  +6.09 (+0.03%)   22826.87
Nikkei 225   -41.35  (-0.2%) 16555.95
S&P/ASX 200    -19.80  (-0.4%) 5541.90
Sensex    -224.03  (-0.8%) 27835.91
Kospi Composite   -0.84  (-0.04%) 2042.92

European Session

In pre-US session, the European stock markets are mostly lower at 8:30 AM and are near middle of the day’s range.

Up Down Last Notes
DAX   -111.60 (-1.1%) 10526.87
  • Gap down open and the price is at the middle of Tuesday range
  • Struggling to stay above a broken down-sloping flag on weekly timeframe
FTSE-100   -13.47 (-0.2%) 6822.31
  • Near the lowest level since Aug 11
CAC-40    -39.17 (-0.9%) 4396.30
  • Fallen back in the up-sloping flag on weekly timeframe after a brief stay above it
IBEX   -69.40 (-0.8%) 8585.90
  • Facing resistance at 39-Week EMA
FTSE MIB    -187.02 (-0.8%) 16704.61
  • Range bound since Jul 12 2016
Swiss Market Index   -75.53 (-0.9%) 8124.30
STOXX 600   -3.49 (-1.00%) 341.44

Currencies

Up Down Last Notes
US Dollar Index   -0.102 94.625
EUR/USD +29.1 pips   1.12916
GBP/USD -35.0 pips 1.31950
USD/JPY  +7.0 pips   100.521

Commodities

Up Down Last Notes
WTI Crude -0.07 (-0.13%) 46.71
  • a break below 45.84 will be bearish in the near term
Natural Gas +0.020 (+0.72%) 2.817
  • Knocking on a downtrend line since Jul 1 on daily timeframe
Gold   -8.5 (-0.49%) 1323.20
  • Crossing below 50-D EMA
  • Broken below a symmetrical triangle on daily charts near 2-year high
Silver   -0.061 (-0.33%) 18.495
  • Broken below a symmetrical triangle on daily charts near 2-year high on Friday; target near 17.67; support near 17.105
Copper  +0.045 (+0.22%)   2.0810
  • Broken support – 2.1215 low of Jul 11 2016

Yields

  • U.S. Treasury yields are up for the day so far
  • 30-year yield is up by +2.0 basis points to 2.263% and 10-year is up by +1.9 basis points to 1.578%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is belo its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Chance
Level Break
Chance
Pivot 2177.78 2177.17
R1 2184.32 27% 2185.58 25%
R2 2193.19 41% 2196.17 30%
R3 2199.73 45% 2204.58 25%
S1 2168.91 25% 2166.58 25%
S2 2162.37 51% 2158.17 42%
S3 2153.50 45% 2147.58 34%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is below 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break chance comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3