Market Diary – Monday July 11, 2016

Directional Bias For The Day:


  • The bias is to the up side
  • On 30-minute chart, S&P 500 futures is within a symmetric triangle near the all time high
  • S&P
  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 2113.00 and 2106.97
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 2134.72 and 2147.60;
  • Early morning futures price action is to the upside – S&P Futures up by +8.50, Dow futures by +79.00 and NASDAQ by +21.50

Before NYSE Session Open

SPX_D_160708_EoDOn Friday, S&P 500 jumped up after June’s Non-Farm Payroll gains came at a higher level than expected.

The S&P 500 reached a high 2131.71 before closing at 2129.90 for a gain of +32.00 or +1.52%. This is slightly below all time high of 2134.72 reached in May 2015.

The Dow Jones Industrial Averages gained +250.86 or +1.4% to 18146.74. NASDAQ Composite was up by +1.54% and Russell 200 was up by +2.40%.

Asian Session

The Asian bourses were mostly up on Monday after a big rally in USA following good Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday.

  • Shanghai Composite was up by +6.82 or +0.23% but it closed near the open and below the high by 26 points
  • Hang Seng was up +316.33 or+1.54% but still within a symmetric triangle
  • Nikkei 225 jumped +601.84 or +3.98% after decisive election victory of Prime MInister Shinzo Abe, rasing the chances of a fiscal stimulus; it is still near the lows and has not made a turn to upside yet
  • Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 gains +2.04% and broke above the support-turned-resistance to enter the previous rectangle trading range
  • Sensex gapped up and broke above a down-sloping flag, reversing four-days of decline. It gained +1.84%
  • South Korea’s Kospi gapped up and closed up by 1.30%

European Session

In pre-US session, European stock markets are mostly up.

  • DAX is up by +162.81 or +1.69%; it is again filling June 24th gap down, in the process it in the CD leg of a bullish ABCD pattern
  • FTSE-100 is up +59.09 or +0.90% to 6649.73 after unexpected withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom from U.K. Prime Minister race, effectively cutting short the election by nine-weeks; FTSE is also breaking above an elevated handle of a Cup-With-Handle patter
  • CAC-40 is up by +1.48%, Italian FTSE MIB by +0.69%, Spanish IBEX-35 by +1.20, STOXX-600 by +1.18% and Swiss SMI-SWX by +0.61%; all are making chart pattern similar to that of DAX, Swiss SMI-SWX being most bullish


  • U.S. Dollar index is up by +0..153 and is breaking above the handle of an uneven cup-with-handle pattern
  • EUR/USD is up by +16.6 pips to 1.10656; it is still facing a down-ward pressure
  • GBP/USD is up by +21 pips to 1.2973 in a downtrend
  • USD/JPY is up by +192.30 pips (Yen is weaker) to 102.406; making a large candle that has engulfed previous 4-days range but still in a downtrend


  • WTI Crude is up by +0.03 to 45.44 after breaking below the lower limit of a descending triangle; Natural Gas is down by -0.020% to 2.781
  • Gold is unchanged at 1358.30; Silver is up by +0.291 to 20.390
  • Copper is up by +1.89% to 2.159


  • U.S. 30-years yield is marginally up to 2.112% and 10-years yield is up to 1.393% from 1.366%

Pivot Levels:

S&P 500 is above its 10-D EMA, 10-D EMA crossed above 20-D EMA and its 20-D EMA is trending above 50-D EMA since March 9, 2016.

S&P 500 Cash eMini Futures
 Daily Level Break
Level Break
Pivot 2122.86 2111.17
R1 2138.75 62% 2134.83 57%
R2 2147.60 42% 2149.17 31%
R1 2163.49 45% 2172.83 26%
S1 2114.01 35% 2096.83 35%
S2 2098.12 34% 2073.17 26%
S3 2089.27 23% 2058.83 23%

Note: The probability of a level breaking is shown above is for the current condition when the price is above 20-D EMA, 10-D EMA is above 20-D EMA and 20-D EMA is above 50-D EMA. R2 break probability comes in picture only when R1 is broken. So are the probabilities calculated for R3, S2 and S3

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