Infosys Seen Needing French Deal to Lift Value

It’s about time too.

Infosys (INFY) is one of the bellwether IT companies of India. It is seeking European acquisitions to lift its value.

Infosys, whose $4 billion cash pile is the biggest among India’s computer-services providers, said last month it’s looking for a European deal after its annual sales forecast trailed analysts’ estimates.

“The need for an acquisition to compete more effectively at the front end seems quite key for Infosys,” Ankur Rudra, a Mumbai-based analyst at Ambit Capital, said. “Unless they are ready to accept lower prices and hence possibly lower margins, they’ll just have to do this. Otherwise, they’ll get competed out of the market.”

Like other big companies, Infosys bottomed in late 2008 and turned around in May 2009. From a November ’08 low of 21.10, Infosys reached a high of 77.92 in January ’11. Since then it has been slowly drifting downwards and currently sits at just above 50% retracement of the up-move.

Its chart pattern says that the down move is probably not over yet. INFY made a double top in Feb ’12 – Oct ’11 high of 61.48 and Feb ’12 high of 60.86. In April, it broke the neckline formed in between with a low of 48.69 reached in Dec ’11. The measured target is in the 36 handle, which is also near 61.2% retracement of the ’09-’11 up move. The Indian market is also in a downturn and is not helping Infosys.

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