30 Yr. Yields Testing Lower Channel Limit

30-Yr. Treasuries have been in a long term bull market. Take a look at the monthly chart of $TNX — the 30-Yr T-Bond Yields, which trends opposite of the 30-Yr. T-Bond prices. From February 1994 to June 2003 it was in a steep downward trend with rates fluctuating within a downward sloping channel of 160 basis points height.

In June 2003, $TNX tried to break out of this downtrend, instead it started to fluctuate within a horizontal channel of 120 basis points height (with a downward bias) till November 2008.

In November 2008, the rates broke sharply below this channel and after couple of months steep decline, started to fluctuate in another lower horizontal channel of 150 basis points from March 2009.

Now again the T-Bond rates are moving steeply toward the lower channel line without going all the way to the upper channel. In case it breaks down below this channel then the next support is at 2.5%. If that happens then going by its history it may fluctuate in another horizontal channel below the current channel and may have a height of 120-150 basis points.

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