Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:30 AM. Moving sideways to down since 3:45 PM on Thursday between 5778.50 and 5759.00
• Odds are for a sideways to down day. Watch for a break above 5778.75 or a break below 5759.00 for clarity.
• No major economic data is due during the day.

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Resumed 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side-Down 6-Min: Side-Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5700.52, 5686.42, and 5659.42.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5722.56, 5733.573 and 5758.36.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5773.00, the high at 0:30 AM and 5759.00, the low at 7:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5778.00, and the index closed at 5713.64 – a spread of about +64.50 points; the futures closed at 5778.00; the fair value is +0.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:15 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -8.00, Dow up by +22, and NASDAQ down by -37.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed higher.
• European markets are mostly lower – Spain is higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD	Dollar index USD/JPY INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.715, down -1.8 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.050%, up +2.8 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.590%, down -16.2 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.125, up from -0.019.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.335, up from 0.289.
• VIX
  • At 16.28 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows reversing previous week’s decline. The index is -0.8% below its all-time high of 5669.67. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D. RSI-9 is just below 50. The week was down 217.60 or 4.0%; the 5-week ATR is 179.17. Fourth up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5556.42, R1=5705.87, R2=5785.73; S1=5476.56, S2=5327.11; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A small Doji like candle that gapped up at the open and made at all-time highs. A break above 5733.57 or a break below 5686.42 will give clues for the short-term move.  Broke above a resistance level – the high of August 30 – with the 61.8% extension target around 5800.00, the 100% extension target around 5900.00, and the 161.8% extension target around 6053.00. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K has crossed above the %D. Potential bearish Divergence. RSI-9 has risen to just below 70 and is above the 8-day EMA. Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Uptrend Resumed
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down within an uptrend that started on September 11. Broke above the upper bound of a horizontal channel. The 61.8% extension target around 5797.00 has been achieved. The 100% extension target is around 5838.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 5905.00. RSI-21 has declined below 55 from above 75 and after making Bearish Divergence. Above EMA20, which is above the EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down since 3:30 PM on Thursday. RSI-21 has been moving around 50 after declining from above 65. At EMA20, which is at EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to down since 10:00 PM. The Bollinger Band is relatively narrow. Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, September 19 in higher volume.

The markets showed a delayed response to the 50-basis point rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday. The major indices gapped up at the open, however, most made a Doji candle by the end of the day indicating uncertainty. S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, NYSE Composite, and FT Wilshire 500 Index made all-time intraday and closing highs. All but three S&P sectors – Staples, Utilities, amd Real Estate – closed higher.

The dollar index closed up at 100.32, the energy futures and metals – precious and industrials – closed up but most soft commodities closed down. The US Treasury yields closed up and the bonds closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market had a decidedly strong showing. The S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.3%) reached fresh all-time highs and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.5%.

[…]

Weekly jobless claims remain steady below recession-like levels, the Philadelphia Fed Index tipped back into expansion (i.e. above 0.0 reading) in September, and existing home sales were slightly below expectations in August, but still reflected a tight market.

[…]

The 10-yr yield settled five basis points higher at 3.73% and the 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 3.60%.

• Nasdaq Composite: +20.0% YTD
• S&P 500: +19.8% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +12.3% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: +11.1% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 219K (Briefing.com consensus 232K); Prior was revised to 231K from 230K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.829 mln; Prior was revised to 1.843 mln from 1.850 mln
• Q2 Current Account Balance -$266.8 bln; Prior was revised to -$241.0 bln from -$237.6 bln
• September Philadelphia Fed Index 1.7 (Briefing.com consensus 3.0); Prior -7.0
• August Existing Home Sales 3.86 mln (Briefing.com consensus 3.90 mln); Prior was revised to 3.96 mln from 3.95 mln.
• August Leading Homes Sales -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus -0.3%); Prior -0.6%