Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving up since 4:30 PM on Friday. Up more than 60 points after declining almost 240 points last week.
• Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break below 5438.50 for a change of sentiments.
• The economic data due during the day:
  • Final Wholesale Inventories (0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 10:00 AM.

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min: Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5427.51, 5402.62, and 5376.98.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5460.79, 5480.54, and 5491.00.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5458.50, the high at 6:15 AM and 5438.50, the low at 1:45 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2024) closed at 5420.50, and the index closed at 5408.42 – a spread of about +8.00 points; the futures closed at 5419.50; the fair value is +1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +36.75, Dow by +269, and NASDAQ by +136.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mostly down – Mumbai and Singapore closed up.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are lower.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.713, down -9.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.021%, down -7.2 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.654%, down -26.6 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.059, up from -0.116.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.308, up from 0.289.
• VIX
  • At 21.21 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.31 on September 4; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 6 was a large red candle with almost no upper and lower shadows. Closed down -4.6% below the all-time high of 5669.67. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below %D. RSI-9 is just below 50. The week was down -239.98 or 4.2%; the 5-week ATR is 181.19. Second up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5478.31, R1=5554.00, R2=5699.58; S1=5332.73, S2=5257.04; S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA, but above 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A large red top candle with small upper and lowers shadows. Filled the up gap of August 15. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D and near zero. RSI-9 has declined to just above 30; below the 8-day EMA. Below 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down just below the lower bound of a trading range between 5669.75 and 5561.25. The 100.0% retracement target of the pattern around 5452.00 is achieved and the price came close to the 161.8% retracement target around 5385.00. Bouncing up since 4:00 PM on Friday. RSI-21 has bounced up to above 45 from below 20 and after making a Bullish Divergence. At/below EMA20, which is below the EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 4:00 PM on September 6. Up more than 60 points. RSI-21 has declined to around 55 from above 65. At/above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 7:30 PM on Sunday. The Bollinger Band is stable and relatively narrow. Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, September 6 in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume. The indices opened flat-to-higher, turned around and then traded lower until the eclose when they flattened. All but one S&P sectors closed lower. Real Estate closed unchanged. For the week, the major indices declined sharply. NASDAQ Composite led to the downside with -5.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with -2.9%, declined the least.

For the week, the dollar index closed down at 101.43, the energy futures closed mixed, the metals – precious and industrials – closed lower, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields closed lower as the bonds rose.

From Briefing.com

The stock market closed the first week of September on a downbeat note. The major indices registered sizable declines, settling near their lows of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 1.0% decline, the S&P 500 settled 1.7% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%.

[…]

The 10-yr note yield settled two basis points lower today, and 20 basis points lower this week, at 3.71%. The 2-yr note yield settled 10 basis points lower today, and 28 basis points lower this week, at 3.65%.

[…]

• S&P 500: +13.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +11.2% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +7.1% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +5.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +3.2% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• August Nonfarm Payrolls 142K (Briefing.com consensus 165K); Prior was revised to 89K from 114K, August Nonfarm Private Payrolls 118K (Briefing.com consensus 142K); Prior was revised to 74K from 97K, August Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%, August Unemployment Rate 4.2% (Briefing.com consensus 4.2%); Prior 4.3%, August Average Workweek 34.3 (Briefing.com consensus 34.3); Prior 34.2