Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Futures have been moving up since 3:45 AM – up more than 25 points.
- The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4145.50 for a change of sentiments.
- The major economic data reports due during the day:
- Prelim GDP ( 1.3% vs. 1.1% est.; prev. 1.1%) at 8:30 AM
- Unemployment Claims ( 229K vs. 249K est.; prev. 225K) at 8:30 AM
- Prelim GDP Price Index ( 4.2% vs. 4.0% est.; prev. 4.0%) at 8:30 AM
- Pending Home Sales ( 1.0% est.; prev. -5.2%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4142.54, 4132.38, and 4112.60
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4155.85, 4174.24, and 4185.68
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 4166.00, the high at 1:00 AM on Wednesday, and 4145.50, the low at 7:30 AM
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4126.75, and the index closed at 4115.24 – a spread of about +11.50 points; the futures closed at 4126.00; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +38.25, Dow down by -4, and NASDAQ up by +318.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Tokyo and Mumbai closed higher
- European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland and STOXX 600 are higher
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are lower
- Industrial metals are lower
- Soft commodities are mostly lower
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.719, up +28.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.965%, up +16.6 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.381%, up +46.5 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.662, down from -0.477
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.246, down from +0.360
- At 19.21 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 21.33 on May 4; low = 15.53 on May 1
- Sentiment: Risk-On
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (E-mini futures)||
|30-Minute (E-mini futures)||
|15-Minute (E-mini futures)||
The major indices gapped down at the open and moved downward until early afternoon. The indices then turned up and recovered some of the losses.
All but one S&P sector – Energy – closed lower.
Market breadth skewed negative with decliners leading advancers by a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a greater than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors declined with real estate (-2.2%) suffering the biggest loss by a decent margin. The financials (-1.3%) and industrials (-1.3%) sectors were also among the top laggards today.
The energy sector (+0.5%) was alone in positive territory by the close, climbing alongside oil prices ($74.26/bbl, +1.35, +1.9%)[…]
The 2-yr note yield was unchanged at 4.34% and the 10-yr note yield rose two basis points to 3.72%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +19.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +7.2% YTD
- Russell 2000: +0.3% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -0.4% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.1% YTD
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index dropped 4.6% with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinance applications dropping 5.0%.
- The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 12.46 million barrels versus a build of 5.04 million barrels last week.
- Europe: DAX -1.9%, FTSE -1.8%, CAC -1.7%
- Asia: Nikkei -0.9%, Hang Seng -1.8%, Shanghai -1.3%
- Crude Oil +1.35 @ 74.26
- Nat Gas +0.07 @ 2.56
- Gold -9.20 @ 1964.80
- Silver -0.38 @ 23.25
- Copper -0.09 @ 3.56