Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moving up since 4:15 AM – up more than 25 points
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for breaks below 4093.25 and 4085.50 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 253K vs. 181K est.; prev. 165K) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.5% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate ( 3.4% vs. 3.6% est.; prev. 3.5% ) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min:  Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4056.46, 4048.28, and 4032.10
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4100.77, 4116.56, and 4140.45
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4118.00, the high at 12:30 AM, 4093.25, the low at 8:30 AM, and 4085.50, the low at 4:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4077.25, and the index closed at 4061.22 – a spread of about +16.00 points; the futures closed at 4075.75; the fair value is +1.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +29.00, Dow by +198, and NASDAQ by +74.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Mumbai, and Singapore closed lower; Hong Kong and Sydney closed higher; Tokyo and Seoul were closed
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY NZD/USD USD/CAD	Dollar index USD/CHF AUD/USD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.351, down -19.9 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.723%, down -3.0 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.805%, down -33.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.454, up from -0.595
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.372, up from +0.208
• VIX
  • At 18.96 @ 8:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 25.21 on March 24; low = 15.53 on May 1
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on April 28 was a green candle with almost no upper shadow and a long lower shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is above 60 The week was up +35.96 or +0.9%; the 5-week ATR  is 97.90 An up week, third in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4129.63, R1=4209.91, R2=4250.34; S1=4089.20, S2=4008.92; R1/S1/S2/S3 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A red candle that gapped with almost no upper shadow and a lower shadow slightly smaller than the real body. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D; below ten RSI-9 declined to below 40; below 8-DMA Below 20-day EMA; at/below 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving down since 12:00 PM on May 1; forming a Horizontal channel since March 30 between 4200.00 and 4060.00; the lower bound of the channel. RSI-21 has risen to above 50 from 25 and after making a Bullish Divergence At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Bouncing off since 12:00 PM on Thursday- up more than 45 points RSI-21 has moved above 60 from below 30 Above EMA 20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 6:15 PM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little since 5:00 AM, with the price walking up the upper band. Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, May 4, in mixed volume. NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume.

The major indices gapped down at the open. They made day’s lows in the first hour of trading and then tried to bounce off but could not close the gap. All but two S&P sectors – REasl Estate and Utilities – closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The major indices were able to close the session off their lows. For the S&P 500, the 4,050 area stood out as a support zone during today’s selling action. […] The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) fell 5.5% and the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) fell 4.6%. […] Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the red with the financials sector (-1.3%) showing the steepest decline. […] The 2-yr note yield fell 22 basis points to 3.73% and the 10-yr note yield fell five basis points to 3.35%. […] Nasdaq Composite: +14.3% YTD S&P 500: +5.8% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.1% YTD S&P Midcap 400: -0.9% YTD Russell 2000: -2.5% YTD […] Q1 Productivity-Prel -2.7% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior was revised to 1.6% from 1.7%; Q1 Unit Labor Cost-Prel 6.3% (Briefing.com consensus 3.9%); Prior was revised to 3.3% from 3.2% […] March Trade Balance -$64.2 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$68.7 bln); Prior was revised to -$70.6 bln from -$70.5 bln […] Weekly Initial Claims 242K (Briefing.com consensus 245K); Prior was revised to 229K from 230K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.805 mln; Prior was revised to 1.843 mln from 1.858 mln […] The weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories showed a build of 54 bcf versus a build of 79 bc last week. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -1.1%, CAC -0.9% Asia: Nikkei market closed, Hang Seng +1.3%, Shanghai +0.8% Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.08 @ 68.45 Nat Gas -0.06 @ 2.29 Gold +24.50 @ 2054.60 Silver +0.58 @ 26.24 Copper +0.0 2@ 3.87