Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM – moving up since 3:30 PM on Wednesday; increased volatility after the release of GDP data at 8:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with a good chance of a sideways to a down move from the pre-open levels around 4100.00 – watch for a break below 4104.75 and a break below 4190.75 for clarity.
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Advanced GDP ( 1.1% vs. 2.0% est.; prev. 2.6%) at 8:30 AM
  • Advanced GDP Price Index ( 4.0% vs. 3.7% est.; prev. 3.9%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 230K vs. 247K est.; prev. 246K) at 8:30 AM
  • Pending Home Sales ( 0.6% est.; prev. 0.8%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Side-Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side-Up 6-Min:  Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4060.88, 4049.35, and 4032.10
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4089.67, 4115.12, and 4126.43
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4104.75, the high at 8:30 AM, and a break below 4090.75, the low at 8:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4074.75, and the index closed at 4055.99 – a spread of about +18.75 points; the futures closed at 4076.00; the fair value is -1.25
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +23.0, Dow by +157, and NASDAQ by +128.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Sydney and Singapore were down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CAD	GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.484, up +6.3 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.733%, up +8.0 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.945%, down -2.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.461, up from -0.549
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.249, up from +0.232
• VIX
  • At 17.93 @ 8:15 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 25.21 on March 24; low = 16.17 on April 19
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on April 21 was a small Doji candle following another Doji candle. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is just above 60 The week was down -4.12 or -0.1%; the 5-week ATR  is 99.82 A down week, second in the last five weeks, and fifth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4138.95, R1=4164.05, R2=4194.57; S1=4108.43, S2=4083.33; No pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A red candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows since March 13 broke. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D, turning up from near zero RSI-9 dropped to below 40; below 8-DMA Below 20-day EMA; at/above 50-day EMA; above 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down after breaking below an up-sloping flag, which had been in effect since 2:00 PM on March 9, at 2:00 PM on April 19. Broke a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since March 13; mA rounding top pattern is emerging RSI-21 bounced up from below 15 at 2:00 PM on Tuesday to above 50; made a Bullish Divergence on Wednesday At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Trending down since 8:30 AM on April 18, making lower highs and lower lows; broke below a Double Bottom pattern and almost achieved the 100% extension target near 4065.00; bouncing up since 3:30 PM on Wednesday. RSI-21 has advanced to above 50 after making Bullish Divergence at 3:30 PM on Wednesday Above EMA 20, which is at EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 10:00 PM. The Bollinger Band is relatively narrow and stable Bias: Side-Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Tuesday, April 25, in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 traded in higher volume.

The major indices opened up but declined during the first hour of trading. They then advanced and tested the day’s high by Noon, when they turned down and traded lower for the rest of the day. All but one S&P sector – Technology – closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The major indices closed the session in mixed fashion, yet today’s trade skewed negative under the surface. […] Still, the overall vibe in the market was downbeat as evidenced by a 1.0% decline in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). […] The 2-yr note yield, which saw 3.86% today, fell three basis points to 3.92%. The 10-yr note yield, which fell to 3.38% earlier, settled up four basis points to 3.43%. […] Nasdaq Composite: +13.3% YTD S&P 500: +5.6% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.5% YTD S&P Midcap 400: UNCH YTD Russell 2000: -1.8% YTD […] Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 3.7%; Prior -8.8% March Durable Orders 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%); Prior was revised to -1.2% from 1.0%; March Durable Goods – ex transportation 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior was revised to -0.3% from 0.0% […] March Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$84.6 bln; Prior was revised to -$92.0 bln from -$91.6 bln March Adv. Retail Inventories 0.7%; Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.8% March Adv. Wholesale Inventories 0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.2% The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 5.05 million barrels after last week’s draw of 4.58 million barrels. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.5%, CAC -0.9% Asia: Nikkei -0.7%, Hang Seng +0.7%, Shanghai -0.0% Commodities:  Crude Oil -2.71 @ 74.36 Nat Gas -0.17 @ 2.12 Gold -9.80 @ 1995.30 Silver -0.09@ 24.86 Copper +0.03 @ 3.87