Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 8:45 AM – declining since 7:45
• The odds are for a sideways to down day – watch for a break above 4128.25 and a break below 4105.75 for more clarity
• The major economic data report is due during the day.
  • Challenger Job Cuts ( 319,4%; prev. 410.1%) at 7:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 228K vs. 200K est. 208K est.; prev. 246K ) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min:  Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4072.56, 4056.18, and 4032.10
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4100.64, 4106.64, and 4133.13
• The key levels for E-mini futures are a break above 4128.25, the high at 8:15 PM, and a break below 4105.75, the low at 1:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4117.25, and the index closed at 4090.38 – a spread of about +29.00 points; the futures closed at 4117.25; the fair value is 0.0
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower- at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -4.00, Dow by -10, and NASDAQ by -46.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul, and Singapore closed down; Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Mumbai closed up
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.311, down -29.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.568%, down -16.9 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.838%, down -32.8 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.504, up from -0.510
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.205, up from +0.182
• VIX
  • At 19.37 @ 7:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 30.81 on March 13; low = 18.16 on March 2
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 31 was a relatively large green candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was up +138.32 or +3.5%; the 5-week ATR  is 159.22 An up week, fourth in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4057.20, R1=4162.86, R2=4216.42; S1=4003.64, S2=3897.98; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A small Doji with a larger lower shadow than the upper shadow Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D RSI-9 declined to below 65 from above 70; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up within an up-sloping flag, which is in effect since 2:00 PM on March 9, breached the upper bound on April 3 and then retreated to the middle of the flag. RSI-21 has risen to near 50 after declining to below 30 At/above EMA20, which is at/above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down since 11:00 AM on April 4; RSI-21 has risen to above 50 from around 40 Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 3:15 PM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little since 7:45 AM, with the price first rising to up the upper band and then declining to the lower band. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, April 5, in mostly higher volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up. S&P 500 and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume.

The major indices opened flat and drifted lower before regaining some fo the losses in the afternoon session.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The 2-yr Treasury note yield fell eight basis points to 3.76% and the 10-yr note yield fell five basis points to 3.29%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 101.91. The main indices spent most of the morning in a slow grind lower, but climbed off their worst levels of the day by the closing bell. Index level losses were paced by the Nasdaq (-1.1%) while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.2%) squeezed out a slim gain, [….] Unsurprisingly, JNJ and UNH helped boost the S&P 500 health care sector (+1.7%) toward the top of the leaderboard today. Utilities (+2.6%), energy (+1.4%), and consumer staples (+1.4%) were the only other sectors to close with a gain. Meanwhile, the information technology (-1.2%), industrial (-1.3%), and consumer discretionary (-2.0%) sectors were the top laggard today. Nasdaq Composite: +14.6% YTD S&P 500: +6.5% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +0.9% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.0% YTD Russell 2000: -0.5% YTD […] The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 4.1% with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinancing applications declining 5.0%. The ADP Employment Change Report for March showed private sector employment increasing by 145,000 (Briefing.com consensus 205,000) following an upwardly revised 261,000 (from 242,000) in February. Weak pockets included manufacturing (-30,000), financial activities (-51,000), professional/business services (-46,000), and information (-7,000). The February Trade Balance Report showed a widening in the trade deficit to $70.5 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$69.0 billion) from a downwardly revised $68.7 billion (from -$68.3 billion) in January. Exports were $6.9 billion less than January exports and imports were $5.0 billion less than January imports. […] The March IHS Markit Services PMI fell to 52.6 in the final reading from 53.8. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March dropped to 51.2% (Briefing.com consensus 54.5%) from 55.1% in February. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the March reading reflects continued growth in the services sector, albeit at a demonstrably slower pace than the prior month. […] The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 3.74 million barrels following last week’s draw of 7.49 million barrels. […] Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.5%, FTSE +0.4%, CAC -0.4% Asia: Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng market closed, Shanghai market closed Commodities:  Crude Oil -0.11 @ 80.61 Nat Gas +0.02 @ 2.14 Gold -0.50 @ 2037.80 Silver -0.07 @ 25.08 Copper slightly higher @ 3.99