Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM; moving up after drifting sideways from 11:00 PM to 7:00 AM around the 3970.00 level
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 3951.00 for a change of sentiments
• The key economic data report is due during the day
  • Import Prices ( 0.6% est.; prev. 2.6%) at 10:00 AM
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Expectations ( 64.1 est.; prev. 65.2) at 10:00 AM
  • Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations ( prev. 5.4%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: In Correction Daily: In Correction 120-Min:  Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3964.80, 3932.03, and 3889.14
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3990.24, 4024.89, and 4046.37
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3985.50, the high at 2:30 PM on May 11 and a break below 3951.00, the low at 3:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2022) closed at 3927.75 and the index closed at 3930.08 – a spread of about -2.25 points; futures closed at 3927.25 for the day; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are higher – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +58.00; Dow by +321; and NASDAQ by +237.75

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai was down
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • 10-years yield closed at 2.899%, up +3.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • 30-years is at 3.057%, up +12.8 basis points;
  • 2-years yield is at 2.510%, down -6.2 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.389, up from 0.291
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.158, up from 0.066
• VIX
  • At 30.31 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 35.48 on May 9; low = 24.94 on May 4
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on May 6 was a Doji candle with an upper shadow more than two-and-half times the lower shadow making it a bearish formation Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K turning up from near zero; below %D; RSI-9 is just above 30 The week was down -8.59 or -0.2%; the 5-week ATR  is 185.00 A down week; fifth in the last five weeks, and seventh in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4164.50, R1=4266.50, R2=4409.65; S1=4021.35, S2=3919.35; R1/S1 pivot levels were breached Below 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; at/below 89-week SMA In Correction
Daily	A green spinning top candle finding support at the March 25, 2021 low; Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above %D from near zero RSI-9 is below 30; below 8-day EMA Below 50-day EMA, 20-day EMA, 200-day SMA, and 100-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The downtrend since 12:00 AM on March 30; lower highs and lower lows since April 21; broke below a Horizontal Channel bounded by 4303.75 and 4056.00 – the 61.8% extension target near 3903.00 is achieved, the 100% extension target is near 3809, and the 161.8% extension target is near 3650.00; bouncing off from 3855.00, just above support made by March 25, 2021 low of 3854.50 RSI-21 bouncing off from below 25 at 12:00 PM on Thursday to above 60; Bullish Divergence Above EMA20 but below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Downtrend – lower highs and lower lows; drifting up since 2:30 PM forming a rounding bottom. RSI-21 is near 60 after making a Bullish Divergence at 2:30 PM on Thursday; Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) is drifting higher since 4:30 PM The Bollinger Band is expanding a bit since 7:30 AM after narrowing from 12:45 AM Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Thursday, May 12, in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 closed down. DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in higher volume.

The major indices gapped down at the open and then moved in the green in the morning trade. They then turned around and made the day’s lows in the afternoon session. They turned up in the least hour of trading and closed above the open.

From Briefing.com:

The S&P 500 declined 0.1% on Thursday, as risk sentiment remained pressured by growth concerns, ongoing selling in large-cap technology stocks, and heightened volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.1% and Russell 2000 gained 1.2%. […] Flirting with bear market territory might have triggered a mechanically-oriented bounce that lifted six of the 11 S&P 500 sectors into positive territory by the close. The health care (+0.9%), consumer discretionary (+0.8%), and real estate (+0.7%) sectors outperformed in positive territory. […] The information technology sector (-1.1%), however, was a heavy drag on the market and for sentiment, […] The utilities sector (-1.2%) was the weakest link. […] The 2-yr yield fell 13 basis points to 2.51%, and the 10-yr yield fell ten basis points to 2.82% (recall, it hit 3.20% early this week). The U.S. Dollar Index remained strong in these uncertain times, rising 0.9% to 104.80 — setting a fresh 20-year high. WTI crude futures rose 1.2%, or $1.26, to $106.40/bbl despite the IEA’s reduced forecast. […] The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in April, as expected, following an upwardly revised 1.6% increase (from 1.4%) in March. Excluding food and energy, the index for final demand jumped 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) following an upwardly revised 1.2% increase (from 1.0%) in March. There was a moderation in the year-over-year growth rates. The index for final demand was up 11.0%, versus 11.5% in March, and the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 8.8%, versus 9.5% in March. […] Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 7 increased by 1,000 to 203,000 (Briefing.com consensus 191,000). Continuing claims for the week ending April 30 decreased by 44,000 to 1.343 million. That is the lowest level since January 3, 1970. […] Dow Jones Industrial Average -12.7 YTD S&P 500 -17.5% YTD Russell 2000 -22.5% YTD Nasdaq Composite -27.3% YTD Overseas:  Europe: DAX -0.6%, FTSE -1.6%, CAC -1.0% Asia: Nikkei -1.8%, Hang Seng -2.2%, Shanghai -0.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +1.26 @ 106.40 Nat Gas +0.04 @ 7.76 Gold -29.60 @ 1823.70 Silver -0.80 @ 20.72 Copper -0.11 @ 4.08