Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower
• The odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility; – watch for break above 3052.25 for change of sentiments
• Key economic data due:
  • Core Durable Goods Orders ( 2.1% est.; prev. -7.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Durable Goods Orders ( 10.3% est.; prev. -17.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Final GDP ( -5.0% est.; prev. -5.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 1320K est.; prev. 1508K) at 8:30 AM
  • Final GDP Price Index ( 1.4% est.; prev. 1.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • Goods Trade Balance ( -68.8B est.; prev. -69.7B) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Wholesale Inventories ( 0.4% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend since March 23 under pressure Daily: Uptrend since March 23 under pressure

120-Min: Side-Down 30-Min: Side 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 3038.83, 3032.13 and 3008.79
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 3067.28, 3079.39 and 3093.60
• Key levels for E-mini futures: break above 3052.25, the high of 5:30 AM and break below 3020.25, the low of 10:00 PM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2020) closed at 3040.25 and the index closed at 3050.33 – a spread of about -10.00 points; futures closed at 3049.00 for the day; the fair value is -8.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures are lower – at 8:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -23.00; Dow by -238 and NASDAQ by -32.25

Markets Around The World

• Markets in East closed lower – Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed
• European markets are higher
• Currencies:
  

  Up	Down
  Dollar index GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	EUR/USD USD/CAD

• Commodities:
  

  Up	Down
  Coffee Cocoa	Crude Oil NatGas Gold Silver Copper Platinum Palladium Sugar Cotton

• Bond
  • 10-yrs yield closed at 0.684%, down from June 23 close of 0.709;
  • 30-years is at 1.445% down from 1.489%
  • 2-years yield is at 0.187% down from 0.193%
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.497 down from 0.516
• VIX
  • Is at 34.48; up +0.67 from June 24 close; above 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high 44.44 on June 15; low 29.26 on June 23
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns on various time frames for S&P 500:

Monthly	Uptrend under pressure May 2020 was a green candle with small upper shadow and a lower shadows that was one third of the real body; Stochastic %K is above %D and above 60; %K Bearish Divergence in January RSI-9 turning up after declining to 34.91, the lowest level since April 2009, from above 75 in January and Bearish Divergence Regaining the middle band of the 120-month regression channel after only third break of channel since 2009 and first close below it Sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken
Weekly:	The week ending on June 19 was a green candle that closed below the mid-point of previous week’s real body after gapping down at the open; Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below %D; RSI (9) is near 60 The week was up +56.43 or +1.9%; the 5-week ATR is 169.70 The weekly week pivot point =3072.98, R1=3180.29, R2=3262.85; S1=2990.42, S2=2883.11; No pivot levels were breached An up week; fourth in last five weeks and sixth in last ten weeks All time high of 3393.52, the last swing high, was during the week of February 17; broke below the low of the week of December 24, 2018; support near 2193.81, the high during the week of August 15, 2016; sequence of higher highs and higher lows broken Above 10-week EMA; at/above 39-week SMA; above 89-week SMA Uptrend since March 23 is under pressure
Daily	A large red candle that gapped down; almost no upper shadow and small lower shadow; breaking below a congestion area; next support near 2965.66 %K is below %D below 50; RSI-9 turning down to below 50; below 8-day RSI; Below 20-day EMA; above 200-day SMA, above 50-day EMA and 100-day Uptrend since March 23 is under pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down since 10:00 PM on June 15; broke below a horizontal trading range between 3150.00 and 3060.00; breached the next support near 3027.00; RSI-21 rising since 10:00 AM on Wednesday after making a Bullish Divergence at 2:00 AM %K is above %D Below EMA10 of EMA50, which is below EMA20 Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving down since 8:00 AM on Tuesday from 3145.75 to 3005.00 by 3:00 AM; broke below a horizontal channel – between 3147.00 and 3064.00 – since June 15; RSI-21 rising since 11:30 AM on Wednesday; Bullish Divergence at 3:00 AM; below 40 %K is below %D; Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) moving sideways since 3:45 PM The Bollinger Band expanding since 3:30 AM; price declining from upper band to middle band Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is above %D Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, June 24 in mostly lower volume. NASDAQ Composite traded in higher volume. indices opened lower with gaps and made day’s lows by midday before trading mostly sideways in afternoon. All S&P sectors closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

The major indices fell more than 2% on Wednesday amid renewed concerns about the coronavirus and its potential impact on reopening activity. The S&P 500 lost 2.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.7%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.2%, and the Russell 2000 lost 3.5%. All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, and all 30 Dow components closed lower. The energy (-5.5%), industrials (-3.5%), and financials (-3.5%) sectors were hit the hardest, while the utilities sector (-0.9%) was the lone sector that declined less than 1.0%. […] U.S. Treasuries finished with modest gains amid the weakness in equities. The 2-yr yield declined one basis point to 0.18%, and the 10-yr yield declined two basis points to 0.69%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.6% to 97.21. WTI crude fell 6.2%, or $2.50, to $37.88/bbl. […] The FHFA Housing Price Index for April increased 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in March. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 8.7% following an 8.0% spike in the prior week.