Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving up since 3:45 PM on Wednesday. Up more than 100 points.
• Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility and a good chance of sideways to down move from the pre-open level around 5775.00 – watch for a break above 5778.75 or a break below 5731.50, the low of 1:45 AM.
• The economic data due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims (219K vs. 230K est.; prev. 231K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (1.7 vs. -0.8 est.; prev. -7.0) at 8:30 AM.
  • Current Account (-267B vs. -259B est.; prev. -241B) at 8:30 AM.
  • Existing Home Sales (3.92M est.; prev. 3.95M) at 10:00 AM.
  • CB Leading Index (-0.3% est.; prev. -0.6%) at 10:00 AM.

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend Resumed 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min: Up-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5689.75, 5662.56, and 5615.08.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5715.70, 5722.73, and 5741.65.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5778.75, the high at 7:30 AM and 5765.00, the low at 6:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2024) closed at 5680.75, and the index closed at 5618.25 – a spread of about +62.50 points; the futures closed at 5680.00; the fair value is +0.75.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +95.75, Dow by +491, and NASDAQ by +449.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed higher.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD USD/CAD	Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.705, down -13.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.026%, down -3.4 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.628%, down -14.6 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.077, up from 0.062.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.321, up from 0.224.
• VIX
  • At 16.47 @ 9:00 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 23.76 on September 6; low = 14.46 on August 19; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 13 was a large green candle with almost no upper and lower shadows reversing previous week’s decline. The index is -0.8% below its all-time high of 5669.67. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed above %D. RSI-9 is just below 50. The week was down 217.60 or 4.0%; the 5-week ATR is 179.17. Fourth up week in the last five weeks and fifth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5556.42, R1=5705.87, R2=5785.73; S1=5476.56, S2=5327.11; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend Resumed
Daily	A small red candle with no lower shadow and an upper shadow longer than the real body at a resistance level – the high of August 30. A break above will have a 61.8% extension target around 5800.00, the 100% extension target around 5900.00, and the 161.8% extension target around 6053.00. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed below the %D. RSI-9 has declined to just above 60. It is above the 8-day EMA. Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Uptrend Resumed
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Trending up since 10:00 AM on September 11. Broke above the upper bound of a horizontal channel. A break above will have a 61.8% extension target around 5797.00, the 100% extension target around 5838.00, and the 161.8% extension target around 5905.00. RSI-21 has bounced above 75 from around 30. Above EMA20, which is above the EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 3:30 PM on Wednesday after a mostly sideways move since 7:00 PM on Sunday. RSI-21 is above 65. Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Side-Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 9:45 PM. The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 8:00 AM with price declining from the upper band. Bias: Up

Previous Session

Most major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Wednesday, September 18 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average and Russell 2000 closed higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Transports traded in higher volume. Most major indices are just below a resistance level.

The major indices opened flat and then traded mostly sideways until the Fed decision at 2:0 PM and the press conference at 2:30 PM, at which point the volatility increased. The indices moved up, then down, then up and down again. All but one S&P sectors – energy – closed lower.

The dollar index closed down at 100.28, the energy futures were down, the metals – precious and industrials – were mixed, and so were the soft commodities. The US Treasury yields closed up and the bonds closed down.

From Briefing.com

Today’s session started sluggish in front of the afternoon’s headline event. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted in favor of cutting the target range for the fed funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75-5.00%. It was not a unanimous vote. Fed Governor Bowman preferred a 25-basis points rate cut.

[…]

The Summary of Economic Projections showed a shift in the median estimate for the 2024 unemployment rate to 4.4% (from 4.0% in June) and a downward shift in PCE inflation to 2.3% (from 2.6% in June) and core-PCE inflation to 2.6% (from 2.8%). The dot-plot, meanwhile, shows a median estimate for 2024 (4.40%) that implies another 50 basis points of rate cuts this year and another 100 basis points in 2025.

[…]

The 2-yr note yield settled today’s session at 3.60%, up one basis point, while the 10-yr note yield settled at 3.69%, up four basis points. They had traded down to 3.54% and 3.64%, respectively, in the initial wake of the policy announcement.

• S&P 500: +17.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: +17.1% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: +10.4% YTD
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +10.1% YTD
• Russell 2000: +8.8% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 14.2% with refinance applications surging 24% and purchase applications jumping 5%
• Housing starts increased 9.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.356 million units (Briefing.com consensus 1.320 million), bolstered by a 15.8% increase in single-unit starts. Building permits increased 4.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.475 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.415 million), aided by a 2.8% increase in single-unit permits..
• The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 1.63 million barrels following last week’s build of 833,000 barrels