Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures have been drifting higher since 6:30 PM.
• The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 5274.25 and 5267.75 for a change of sentiments.
• The major economic data report due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims (213K est.; prev. 210K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Trade Balance (-66.9B est.; prev. -67.4B) at 8:30 AM.

Weekly: Up Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Side-Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5228.75, 5215.83, and 5198.04.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5235.64, 5247.24, and 5263.95.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5285.75, the high at 7:00 AM, and 5274.75, the low at 2:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2024) closed at 5265.25, and the index closed at 5211.49 – a spread of about +53.75 points; the futures closed at 5266.50; the fair value is -1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +15.75, Dow by +98, and NASDAQ by +73.00.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed higher – Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed.
• European markets are mostly higher – France and Italy are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.355, up +8.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.509%, up +5.4 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.681%, up +7.6 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.326, up from -0.338.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.154, down +0182.
• VIX
  • At 14.19 @ 7:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 16.04 on March 11; low = 12.40 on March 21; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 29 was a green spinning top candle at the all-time highs with small upper and lower shadows. Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 100% extension target around 4901.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; near 100. RSI-9 is above 80. The week was up +20.17 or +0.4%; the 5-week ATR is 101.93. Third up week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5240.87, R1=5278.33, R2=5302.30; S1=5216.90, S2=5179.44; No pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A relatively small Bullish Engulfing candle with almost no lower shadow and a small upper shadow following a Dragonfly Doji that gapped down forming an island below all-time high. Moving up within an upsloping channel since late October 2023. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below the %D after making a Bearish Divergence RSI-9 is making a coiling pattern since January; turned up to 55; below 8-day EMA. Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence. Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving higher within an upsloping Linear Regression channel of one StdDev since early-January. The price broke below the lower band of the channel on April 2 before rising up into it. RSI-21 has bounced up to above 60 from below 20 on April 2. Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Broke above a down sloping flag at 9:30 AM on Wednesday – the 100% extension target around 5272.00 is achieved and the 161.8% extension target is around 5290.00. RSI-21 has been moving between 50 and 60 since 9:30 AM on Wednesday. Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting higher since 9:00 PM. The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 7:00 AM. Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly higher on Wednesday, April 3 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down. Tow Dow Jones averages – Industrials and Transports – traded in higher volume. The major indices opened higher and made day’s highs by mid-day before moving sideways to down for the rest of the day.

All but four S&P sectors – Staples, Financials, Utilities, and Healthcare – closed higher. The dollar index closed down, the energy futures closed mixed, metals closed higher. and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury Yields closed mixed.