Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures moved higher at 8:30 AM following the release of the NFP report.
• The odds are for an up day with increased volatility – watch for a break above 5237.25 and a break below 5206.75 – for more clarity.
• The major economic data report due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change (198K est.; prev. 353K) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate (3.7% est.; prev. 3.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings (0.2% est.; prev. 0.6%) at 8:30 AM

Weekly: Up Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Up

30-Min: Up-Side 15-Min: Side-Down 6-Min: Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5144.86, 5128.21, and 5093.16.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5172.58, 5187.81, and 5209.99.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5237.25, the high at 3:45 AM, and 5206.75, the low at 4:15 PM on Thursday.

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2024) closed at 5222.75, and the index closed at 5157.36 – a spread of about +65.50 points; the futures closed at 5218.00; the fair value is +4.75.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +4.25, Dow down by -60, and NASDAQ by up +11.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore closed down. Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed up.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/USD USD/CAD	Dollar index USD/JPY NZD/USD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.104, down -22.1 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.240%, down -25.2 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.560%, down -11.0 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.456, down from -0.345.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.136, down from +0.167.
• VIX
  • At 14.17 @ 8:30 AM; below from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 16.12 on February 21; low = 13.08 on March 1; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on March 1 was a small green candle with a small lower shadow and almost no upper shadow closing at the all-time high. Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 100% extension target around 4901.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D near 100. RSI-9 is above 80. The week was up +48.28 or +0.9%; the 5-week ATR is 123.66. Fourth up week in the last five weeks and eight in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=5111.57, R1=5165.84, R2=5194.61; S1=5082.80, S2=5028.53; No pivot levels were breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A green candle with a small upper shadow and almost no lower shadow that gapped up from previous day’s Doji candle. Broke above a Horizontal Channel between 4802.40 and 4682.11 on January 19 – the 261.8% extension target around 5117.00 is achieved. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is crossed above %D. RSI-9 is above 65; above 8-day EMA. Above 20-day EMA; above 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence. Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving higher within an upsloping Linear Regression channel of one StdDev over the past twenty days – price is in the upper band of the channel. RSI-21 has declined to below 55 from above 80 after making Bearish Divergence. Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50. Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down since 10:30 AM on Thursday between 5237.25 and 5206.75. RSI-21 has declined to below 50 from above 75 and after making Bearish Divergence. Above EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20, Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving down since 6:15 AM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 6:15 AM with the price walking down the lower band. Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, March 7 in lower volume. Major indices opened higher and then traded higher for most of the day before flattening in late trading. S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index made all-time closing and intraday highs. NASDAQ Composite made all-time intraday high but closed a bit lower than its all-time high.

All but one S&P sector – Financials – closed higher. The dollar index and energy futures closed down, the precious metals and copper closed higher, and the soft commodities closed mostly higher. The US Treasury Yields closed mixed.