Directional Bias for the Day:

• S&P Futures are a tad lower at 8:00 AM – moving within a trading range between 4757.00 and 4741.00 since 3:45 PM.
• The odds are a sideways to a down day – watch for a break above 4757.00 or a break below 4741.00 for clarity.
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (164K vs. 120K est.; prev.101K) at 8:15 AM.
  • Unemployment Claims (202K vs. 217K est.; prev. 220K) at 8:30 AM
  • Final Services PMI (51.3 est.; prev. 51.3) at 9:45 AM

Weekly: Up Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Side-Down

30-Min: Down-Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4694.34, 4643.26, and 4593.39.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4729.29, 4744.14, and 4763.58.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4757.00, the high at 3:30 AM, and 4741.00, the low at 3:45 PM on Wednesday.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2024) closed at 4747.00, and the index closed at 4704.81 – a spread of about +42.25 points; the futures closed at 4746.50; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed- at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.00, Dow by +72, and NASDAQ down by -64.00

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East mostly closed mostly lower – Mumbai closed up.
• European markets are mostly higher – Switzerland is lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index GBP/USD AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are mostly lower.
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.907, up +3.0 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.056%, up +5.1 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.342%, up +0.7 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.435, up from -0.458
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.149, up from +0.128
• VIX
  • At 13.99 @ 7:30 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 14.49 on December 21; low = 12.38 on December 28; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on December 29 was a relatively small green with a larger upper shadow than the lower shadow. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below above the %D near 100. RSI-9 is near 75. The week was up +15.20 or +0.3%; the 5-week ATR is 78.31 Fifth up week in the last five weeks and ninth in the previous ten weeks The weekly pivot point=4771.71, R1=4791.42, R2=4813.02; S1=4750.11, S2=4730.40; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA, 39-week SMA, and 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A red candle with almost no upper and lower shadows. Declined to a swing-low support – the low of December 20. Broke above a down-sloping Flag on November 14 – the 61.8% extension target 4597.07 is achieved, the 100% extension target is around 4901.99, and the 161.8% extension target is near 5395.00. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is below %D to near five after making a bearish divergence on December 28. RSI-9 is dipped below 50; below 8-day EMA; made a bearish divergence on December 28. Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA – in sequence. Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving down since 4:00 AM on Tuesday – at a support level around 4743.00, which was the low on December 20; the next support is around 4700.00. At the lower bound of a horizontal channel – a break below 4743.25 will have the 61.8% extension target around 4683.00 and the 100% extension target around 4645.00. RSI-21 has bounced up above 30 from below 20 at 10:00 AM on Wednesday. Below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Drifting sideways around 4750.00 since 6:00 PM after declining almost 100 points from December 29 high. RSI-21 has drifted yup to above 40 after making a Bullish Divergence at 3:30 PM on Wednesday. At/below EMA20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 8:45 PM. The Bollinger Band has narrowed with the price moving along the middle band. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, January 3 in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average has been leading the market this week so far.

The major indices opened lower and declined in the morning before bouncing up mid-day only to give up those gains and some more before by the end of the day.

All but two S&P sectors – Energy and Utilities – closed lower. The dollar index was up, energy futures were up, precious metals and industrial metals were down, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields inched down.