Directional Bias For The Day:
S&P Futures are little changed at 8:45 AM; up more than 30 points since 3:45 AM, attempting to break above a handle of a cup-with-handle pattern
- The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility – watch for breaks below 4334.00 for a change of sentiments
- The major economic data reports due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims ( 198K vs. 210K est.; prev. 211K) at 8:30 AM
- Philly Fed MManufacturing Index ( -9.0 vs. -6.7 est.; prev. -13.5) at 8:30 AM
- Existing Home Sales ( 3.89M est.; prev. 4.04M) at 10:00 AM
- CB Leading Index ( -0.4% est.; prev. -0.4%) at 10:00 AM
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Key Levels:
- Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4303.84, 4283.79, and 4267.13
- Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4349.65, 4373.30, and 4393.57
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 4351.00, the high at 4:00 PM on Wednesday, and 4334.00, the low at 7:30 AM
Pre-Open
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4343.00, and the index closed at 4314.60 – a spread of about +28.50 points; the futures closed at 4342.25; the fair value is +0.75
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.00, Dow by +4, and NASDAQ by +48.00
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed lower
- European markets are lower
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up | Down |
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- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are mixed
- Precious metals are higher
- Industrial metals are mostly higher
- Soft commodities are mostly higher
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 4.847, up +4.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 4.950%, up +1.3 basis points
- The 2-year yield is at 5.208%, up +2.4 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.361, up from -0.382
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.103, up from +0.135
- VIX
- At 19.78 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 20.78 on October 13; low = 15.44 on October 12; Sentiment: Risk-Off
The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:
Weekly: |
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Daily |
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2-Hour (E-mini futures) |
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30-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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15-Minute (E-mini futures) |
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Previous Session
Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, October 18, in mostly higher volume. The Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The market indices are trying to break below a 5-6 days’ congestion area after facing resistance at the down gap made on September 21.
The major indices opened lower and then traded down for the rest of the day. All but two S&P sectors – Consumer Staples and Energy – closed lower. The dollar index, crude oil, precious metals, and copper were up. Most of the soft commodities were also up.
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