Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are little changed at 8:45 AM; up more than 30 points since 3:45 AM, attempting to break above a handle of a cup-with-handle pattern
• The odds are for a sideways to an up day with elevated volatility – watch for breaks below 4334.00 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 198K vs. 210K est.; prev. 211K) at 8:30 AM
  • Philly Fed MManufacturing Index ( -9.0 vs. -6.7 est.; prev. -13.5) at 8:30 AM
  • Existing Home Sales ( 3.89M est.; prev. 4.04M) at 10:00 AM
  • CB Leading Index ( -0.4% est.; prev. -0.4%) at 10:00 AM

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Up-Side

30-Min: Side-Down 15-Min: Down-Side 6-Min: Side-Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4303.84, 4283.79, and 4267.13
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 4349.65, 4373.30, and 4393.57
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4351.00, the high at 4:00 PM on Wednesday, and 4334.00, the low at 7:30 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4343.00, and the index closed at 4314.60 – a spread of about +28.50 points; the futures closed at 4342.25; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +4.00, Dow by +4, and NASDAQ by +48.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed lower
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD INR/USD	Dollar index USD/CHF NZD/USD USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mostly higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.847, up +4.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.950%, up +1.3 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 5.208%, up +2.4 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.361, up from -0.382
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.103, up from +0.135
• VIX
  • At 19.78 @ 8:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 20.78 on October 13; low = 15.44 on October 12; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on October 13 was a relatively small green candle with small lower and upper shadows. The index is just above a support level, which briefly acted as a resistance level Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; RSI-9 is near 50 The week was up +19.28 or +0.4%; the 5-week ATR  is 101.50 Second up week in the last five weeks and fourth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4332.47, R1=4381.16, R2=4434.53; S1=4279.10, S2=4230.41; R1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A relatively large red candle near the lower end of a horizontal trading range since October 9 between 4385.00 and 4329.00. Turning down from a resistance level created by the 50-day EMA, the high of October 12, and the gap created on September 21 Gapped down on September 21 and broke below a symmetrical triangle – the 61.8% extension target near 4250.00 is achieved; the 100% extension target is around 4150.00. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above the %D RSI-9 is below 50, below 8-DMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Broke below a support level around 4370.00, which was a resistance level until October 9 RSI-21 has turned down to below 50 Below EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Drifting lower since 12:00 Pm on October 17 RSI-21 has bounced up to near 50 from 30 Above EMA20, and at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways to up since 3:15 AM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 5:15 AM – the price is at the upper band. Bias: Down-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday, October 18, in mostly higher volume. The Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The market indices are trying to break below a 5-6 days’ congestion area after facing resistance at the down gap made on September 21.

The major indices opened lower and then traded down for the rest of the day. All but two S&P sectors – Consumer Staples and Energy – closed lower. The dollar index, crude oil, precious metals, and copper were up. Most of the soft commodities were also up.