Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are a little higher at 8:00 AM – moving sideways  around the 4295.00 level ahead of the 8:30  AM Non-Farm Employment report
• The daily bias is down, the futures are within a support zone, and there is a good chance of a bounce; odds are for elevated volatility following the economic news at 8:30 AM – watch for a break above 4305.25 or a break below 4281.75 for clarity
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Non-Farm Employment Change ( 171K est.; prev. 187K) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Rate ( 3.7% est.; prev. 3.8% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Average Hourly Earnings ( 0.3% est.; prev. 0.2%) at 8:30 AM

Weekly: Uptrend Under Pressure Daily: Correction 120-Min: Down-Side

30-Min: Side 15-Min: Side 6-Min: Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 4225.91, 4216.45, and 4194.92
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 44268.50, 4288.26, and 4303.12
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4305.25, the high at 6:30 AM, and 4281.75, the low at 2:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Thursday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (December 2023) closed at 4291.50, and the index closed at 4258.19 – a spread of about +33.25 points; the futures closed at 4290.75; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +6.75, Dow by +59, and NASDAQ by +27.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Tokyo was down; Shanghai was closed
• European markets are higher
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF NZD/USD USD/CAD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are lower
  • Soft commodities are mostly lower
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.717, up +23.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 4.886%, up +33.4 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 5.013%, down -13.5 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.296, up from -0.668
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.169, up from +0.072
• VIX
  • At 18.57 @ 7:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 20.88 on October 4; low = 15.83 on September 129
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on September 29 was a relatively small candle that looked like Dragonfly Doji just below resistance, which was acting as a support until the last week. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below the %D; RSI-9 has declined to near 40 The week was down -33.01 or -0.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 107.08 Fourth down week in the last five weeks and seventh in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4288.40, R1=4338.16, R2=4388.28; S1=4238.28, S2=4188.52; S1 pivot level was breached Below 10-week EMA; above 39-week SMA and 89-week SMA Uptrend Under Pressure
Daily	A long-legged Harami Doji off an uptrend line since October 13, 2022, and just above the lows of June 1, 2023. Gapped down on September 21 and broke below a symmetrical triangle – the 61.8% extension target near 4250.00 is achieved; the 100% extension target is around 4150.00. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above the %D; Bullish Divergence RSI-9 bounced up to above 30 from around 20, below 8-DMA; Below 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, and 100-day SMA; above 200-day SMA; In Correction
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	The downtrend since 2:00 AM on September 15. Broke below a horizontal channel on September 21 – the 100% extension target near 4305.00 is achieved, and the 161.8% extension target is around 4224.66; Turned down at 8:00 AM on September 29 from a resistance level after bouncing from 4277.00, the low reached at 6:00 AM on September 27 The chart action since early June shows an uneven Head-and-Shoulder pattern. The neckline was broken on September 25. The 61.8% extension target is around 4210.00, the 100% extension target is near 4110.00, and the 161.8% extension target is around 3950.00. A convincing move above 4400.00 will nullify the pattern RSI-21 has been moving around 55 for over two day At/above EMA20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Down-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sidewyas since 11:30 AM on October 4 between 4304.00 and 4277.25 RSI-21 has been moving around 55 for over two days Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 3:15 AM. The Bollinger Band has been expanding a little – the price has declined to the middle band from the upper band. Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mostly lower on Thursday, October 5, in lower volume. Russell 2000 and NYSE Composite closed higher.

The indices opened flat, then until 11:00 Am, and then drifted higher until the close. The day’s price action was indecisive a day before the Non-Farm Payroll report. All but four S&P sectors – Financials, Technology, Healthcare, and Real Estate – closed down.

The dollar index declined. The US Treasury Yields, the energy futures, and the soft commodities closed mixed. The hard commodities closed down.