Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 9:15 AM. Futures have been moving up since 3:00 PM on Wednesday – up more than 50 points.
• The odds are for an up day – watch for a break below 4619.25
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • ECB Main Refinancing Rate (4.25% vs. 4.25% est.; prev. 4.00%) at 8:15 AM
  • ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 8:15 AM
  • Advance GDP ( 2.4% vs. 1.8% est.; prev. 2.0% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Unemployment Claims ( 221K vs. 234K est.; prev. 228K) at 8:30 AM
  • Durable Goods Orders ( 4.7% vs. 1.3% est.; prev. 1.8% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Core Durable Goods Orders (0.6% vs. 0.1% est.; prev. 0.7%) at 8:30 AM
  • Goods Trade Balance (-87.8B vs. -91.8B est.; prev. -91.9B) at 8:30 AM
  • Prelim Wholesale Inventories ( -0.3% vs. -0.1% est.; prev. 0.0%) at 8:30 AM
  • ECB Press Conference at 8:45 AM
  • Pending Home Sales ( -0.5% est.; prev. -2.7%) at 10:00 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Daily: Uptrend 120-Min: Side-Up

30-Min: Up 15-Min: Up 6-Min:  Up

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4593.45, 4582.47, and 4568.08
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4603.07, 4617.01, and 4637.30
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4634.50, the high at 8:45 AM, and 4619.25, the low at 7:00 AM

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4596.25, and the index closed at 4566.75 – a spread of about +29.75 points; the futures closed at 4595.25; the fair value is +1.00
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were up – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +35.75, Dow by +71, and NASDAQ by +213.50

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tokyo, and  Seoul closed lower; Sydney, Mumbai, and Singapore closed higher
• European markets are mostly lower – Spain is up
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
EUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD	Dollar index GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD INR/USD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are higher
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.912, down -6.8 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.955%, down -6.4 basis points
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.878%, up +0.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.966, down from -0.897
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.043, up from +0.039
• VIX
  • At 12.89 @ 8:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 21.33 on May 4; low = 12.73 on June 22
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on July 21 was a green candle with almost no lower shadow and an upper shadow bigger than the real body just below a resistance level created by the high of the week of March 28, 2022. Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is crisscrossing the %D above 80; RSI-9 is near75 The week was up +30.92 or +0.7%; the 5-week ATR  is 96.29 An up week, third in the last five weeks, and eight in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4539.89, R1=45741.88, R2=4613.42; S1=4501.35, S2=4466.36; R1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A small Doji within a resistance zone Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K is at/below %D; RSI-9 is just above 70; at/below 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Broke above a Horizontal Channel overnight – the 61.8% extension target is near 4640.00, the 100% extension target is near 4660.00, and the 161.8% extension target is near 4690.00 RSI-21 has advanced to above 80 from below 40 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving up since 3:00 PM on Wednesday after the FOMC press conference. Breaking above high resistance created on March 29, 2022 RSI-21 is just above 70 Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 4:00 PM. The Bollinger Band is expanded with the price walking up the upper band. Bias: Up

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday, July 26, in mostly higher volume. S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed lower. Dow Jones Transportation Average traded in lower volume.