Morning Notes – Monday, June 12, 2023

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are higher at 9:00 AM. Moving up since 6:15 AM from 4353.00 after declining from 4364.50 reached at 5:00 AM
  • The odds are for an up day with an equal chance of breaking down- watch for a break below 4353.00 for a change of sentiments
  • No major economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up
  • 15-Min: Up-Side
  • 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4297.54, 4291.703, and 4279.60
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4309.92, 4322.62, and 4346.90
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4364.50, the high at 5:00 AM, and 4355.25, the low at 6:00 AM


  • On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (September 2023) closed at 4350.75, and the index closed at 4298.86 – a spread of about +52.00 points; the futures closed at 4348.75; the fair value is +2.00
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +11.00, Dow by +39, and NASDAQ by +74.75

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mostly higher –   Shanghai and closed lower; Sydney was closed for trading
  • European markets are higher
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed
    • Precious metals are higher
    • Industrial metals are mostly lower
    • Soft commodities are higher
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.720, down -9.0 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 3.859%, down -11.0 basis points;
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.606%, down -11.0 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.886, down from -0.754
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.139, down from +0.159
  • VIX
    • At 14.59 @ 6:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 20.81 on May 24; low = 13.50 on June 9
    • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

  • The week ending on June 9 as a small green spinning top candle indicating a bit of indecision following a break above the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K crossed below the %D; from above 90
    • RSI-9 is just above 70
  • The week was up +16.49 or +0.4%; the 5-week ATR  is 90.67
  • An up week, fourth in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=4294.18, R1=4327.30, R2=4355.73; S1=4265.75, S2=4232.63; No pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
  • A red Spinning Top candle that looks like a Doji above the previous day’s high and at the resistance level created by the August 2022 high.
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below the %D from above 90
    • RSI-9 is just below 70; above 8-DMA
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Broke above a Horizontal Channel between 4348.00 and 4305 with the 61.8% extension target near 4375.00 and the 100% extension target ear 4391.00
    • RSI-21 has declined to 65 from above 65
    • Above  EMA10 of EMA50, which is at/above EMA20
  • Bias: Up
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Breaking above a Cup-with-Handle. The first target is near 4358.00, and the second target is near 4365.00
    • RSI-21 has been trending up since 3:00 AM
    • Above EMA 20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 5:15 AM
  • The Bollinger Band is expanded and stable, with the price near the middle band
  • Bias: Up-Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Friday, June 8, in mixed volume. Russell 2000, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed down. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The day’s price action was a little bit like reversal day and major indices closed lower than their open.

For the week, the major US indices closed up in mostly higher volume. Moats exchanges in Asia closed up but most markets in Europe closed down. The dollar index closed down, the energy futures closed mixed, the precious metals closed up, and the industrial metals and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasury yields moved up. All but two S&P sectors – Consumer Staples and Technology – closed higher.



The S&P 500 climbed past 4,300 for the first time since August after yesterday’s closing level (4,293.93) marked a 20% advance off the October closing low, which meets the technical definition of entering a new bull market.


The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was up 0.4% at its high for the day, but closed with a 0.1% loss after many stocks pulled back.


The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), which had been up as much as 1.2%, closed with a 0.4% gain.


By the close, decliners led advancers by a 5-to-3 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.


Strength from their respective mega cap components had the information technology (+0.5%), consumer discretionary (+0.4%), and communication services (+0.1%) sectors near the top of the leaderboard.


The cyclically-oriented materials (-0.8%) and energy (-0.6%) sectors closed at the bottom of the pack.


The 2-yr note yield rose 10 basis points to 4.62% and the 10-yr note yield rose three basis points to 3.75%.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +26.7% YTD
  • S&P 500: +12.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +5.9% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +4.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.2% YTD
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