Directional Bias For The Day:
- S&P Futures are a little lower at 9:00 AM. Futures are within an Ascending Triangle below a resistance level around 4279.00
- The odds are for a sideways day to a down day – watch for a break above 4279.00 and a creak below 4262.75 for clarity
- The major economic data report due during the day:
- Unemployment Claims ( 261K vs. 237=6K est.; prev. 233K) at 8:30 AM
- Final Wholesale Inventories ( -0.2% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 10:00 AM
Directional Bias Before Open:
- Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4263.09, 4251.09, and 4243.09
- Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4276.28, 4284.60, and 4299.28
- The key levels for E-mini futures are 4279.00, the high at 8:30 AM, and 4272.75, the low at 12:45 AM
- On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4274.50, and the index closed at 4267.52 – a spread of about +7.00 points; the futures closed at 4274.25; the fair value is +0.25
- Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -2.00, Dow down by -57, and NASDAQ up by +21.25
Markets Around The World
- Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore closed higher; Tokyo, Sydney, Mumbai, and Seoul closed lower
- European markets are mostly higher – the UK and Switzerland are down
- Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
- Energy futures are lower
- Precious metals are mixed
- Industrial metals are mostly lower
- Soft commodities are mixed
- Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
- The 10-year yield closed at 3.784, up +6.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
- The 30-year is at 3.942%, down -2.3 basis points;
- The 2-year yield is at 4.567%, up +18.6 basis points;
- The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.783, down from -0.662
- The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.158, down from +0.246
- At 14.04 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
- Recent high = 20.81 on May 24; low = 13.77 on June 7
- Sentiment: Risk-Off-Neutral
The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:
|2-Hour (E-mini futures)||
|30-Minute (E-mini futures)||
|15-Minute (E-mini futures)||
Major indices opened. The two indices that closed lower traded sideways to down, and others mostly drifted higher. Dow Jones Transportation Average led others with a gain of 2.5%, and Russell 2000 was up with a +1.8% gain.
The Russell 2000 was a winning standout again, gaining 1.8%.[…]
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) fell 1.7%.[…]
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose 0.7%[…]
The market-cap weighted S&P 500, which ran into some resistance after hitting 4,299 in the early going, declined by a modest 0.4%.[…]
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) rose 3.3%. The S&P 500 energy sector (+2.7%) led its peers by a wide margin.
Other top performers included the cyclical materials (+1.2%) and industrials (+1.6%) sectors.
Lagging mega cap components weighed down the communication services (-1.9%), information technology (-1.6%), and consumer discretionary (-0.9%) sectors.[…]
The 2-yr note yield rose two basis points to 4.55% and the 10-yr note yield rose nine basis points to 3.78%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +25.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +11.2% YTD
- Russell 2000: +7.2% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +5.7% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.6% YTD
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 1.4% with purchase applications declining 2.0% and refinancing applications falling 1.0%.
- The U.S. trade deficit widened to $74.6 billion in April (Briefing.com consensus -$75.3 billion) from an upwardly revised $60.6 billion (from -$64.2 billion) in March, which was recalculated with annual revisions to the goods and services series. The widening deficit in April was the result of exports being $9.2 billion less than March exports and imports being $4.8 billion more than March imports.
- The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a draw of 451,000 barrels after a build of 4.49 million barrels last week.
- Consumer credit increased by $23.0 bln in April (Briefing.com consensus $21.0 bln) following a downwardly revised $22.9 bln (from $26.5 bln) in March.
- Europe: DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, CAC -0.1%
- Asia: Nikkei -1.8%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai +0.1%
- Crude Oil +0.76 @ 72.48
- Nat Gas +0.08 @ 2.34
- Gold -22.10 @ 1959.40
- Silver -0.17 @ 23.53
- Copper -0.02 @ 3.75