Morning Notes – Tuesday, June 6, 2023

Directional Bias For The Day:

  • S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Futures have been moving sideways between 4285.00 and 4273.00 since 2:30 PM on Monday
  • The odds are for a sideways day – watch for a break above 4285.00 or a break below 4273.00 for clarity
  • No major economic data report is due during the day:

Directional Bias Before Open:

  • Weekly: Uptrend
  • Daily: Uptrend
  • 120-Min: Up
  • 30-Min: Up-Side
  • 15-Min: Side
  • 6-Min:  Side

Key Levels:

  • Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4266.82, 4251.09, and 4243.09
  • Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4280.47, 4288.59, and 4299.28
  • The key levels for E-mini futures are 4285.00, the high at 3:30 AM, and 4273.75, the low at 5:15 AM

Pre-Open

  • On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4280.50, and the index closed at 4273.79 – a spread of about +6.75 points; the futures closed at 4281.00; the fair value is -0.50
  • Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:30 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -5.25, Dow by -30, and NASDAQ by -15.25

Markets Around The World

  • Markets in the East closed mixed – Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Sydney closed lower; Tokyo, Mumbai, and Singapore closed higher; Seoul was closed
  • European markets are mostly lower – Switzerland and STOXX 600 are up
  • Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):
Up Down
  • Dollar index
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CHF
  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • USD/CAD
  • INR/USD
  • Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
    • Energy futures are mixed
    • Precious metals are lower
    • Industrial metals are mostly lower
    • Soft commodities are mixed
  • Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
    • The 10-year yield closed at 3.702, down -1.7 basis points from two weeks ago;
    • The 30-year is at 3.982%, down -7.2 basis points;
    • The 2-year yield is at 4.458%, up +11.7 basis points;
    • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.748, down from -0.622
    • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.194, down from +0.251
  • VIX
    • At 14.86 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
    • Recent high = 20.81 on May 24; low = 14.42 on June 2
    • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:
  • The week ending on June 2 as a green candle with almost no upper shadow and a lower shadow almost equal to the real body, moving above the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle
    • Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is above the %D; above 95
    • RSI-9 is just above 70
  • The week was up +76.92 or +1.8%; the 5-week ATR  is 106.09
  • An up week, third in the last five weeks, and sixth in the previous ten weeks;
  • The weekly pivot point=4246.40, R1=4326.64, R2=4370.92; S1=4202.12, S2=4121.88; R1/R2 pivot levels were breached
  • Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA
  • Uptrend
Daily
  • A small red Spinning Top candle at the close or Friday’s candle – potential Evening Star pattern
    • Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below the %D from near 100
    • RSI-9 turned below 70; above 8-DMA
  • Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA;
  • Uptrend
2-Hour (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 10:00 AM on June 2. Broke above a Horizontal Channel between 4205.00 and 4060.00  – the 61.8% extension target is near 4295.00 and the 100% extension target is ear 4350.00
    • RSI-21 has declined to around 45 from 90 after making a Bearish Divergence at 12:00 Pm on Monday
    • At/above  EMA10 of EMA50, which is above EMA20
  • Bias: Up-Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • Moving sideways since 2:30 PM on Monday between 4285.00 and 4273.00
    • RSI-21 has been moving below 50
    • At/below EMA 20, which is at/below EMA10 of EMA50
  • Bias: Up-Side
15-Minute (E-mini futures)
  • The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving sideways since 9:00 PM.
  • The Bollinger Band is narrow and stable
  • Bias: Side

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, June 5, in lower volume. The major indices opened up and moved higher until 1:00 PM when they turned down and traded lower for the rest of the day. Most indices are making bullish chart patterns on the daily timeframe and are reaching overbought conditions. All but four S&P sectors – Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, Healthcare, and Communications – closed lower.

From Briefing.com:

Dow -199.90 at 33562.77, Nasdaq -11.34 at 13229.6, S&P -8.58 at 4275.06 :

[..]

The market started to fade around 1:00 p.m. ET

[…]

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), up as much as 0.8%, fell 0.1% today while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) declined 0.3%.

[…]

The industrials (-0.7%) and energy (-0.6%) sectors were also among the worst performers today.

[…]

The communication services (+0.6%), utilities (+0.5%), and health care (+0.4%) sectors led the outperformers.

[…]

The 2-yr note yield fell three basis points to 4.48% and the 10-yr note yield was unchanged at 3.69%.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +26.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: +11.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +2.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.3% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +2.0% YTD
[…]
  • The IHS Markit Services PMI rose to 54.9 in the final reading for May from 53.6.
  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for May decreased to 50.3% (Briefing.com consensus 52.3%) from 51.9% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the May reading reflects continued growth in the services sector, but at a slower pace than the prior month.
  • […]
  • Factory orders increased 0.4% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%) following a downwardly revised 0.6% increase (from 0.9%) in March. Shipments of manufactured goods decreased 0.4% month-over-month after declining 0.6% in March.
[…]