Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are lower at 9:00 AM. Futures have been declining since 7:00 AM – down more than 20 points.
• The odds are for a down day – watch for a break above 4174.25 for a change in sentiments
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims ( 242K vs. 253K est.; prev. 264K) at 8:30 AM
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index ( -10.4 vs. -19.5 est.; prev. -31.3) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Side

30-Min: Side-Down 15-Min: Side-Down 6-Min:  Down

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4147.32, 4136.69, and 4119.48
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4151.32, 4164.67, and 4186.92
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4178.25, the high at 8:30 AM, and 4164.75, the low at 3:00 PM on Wednesday

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4172.25, and the index closed at 4158.77 – a spread of about +13.50 points; the futures closed at 4171.50; the fair value is +0.75
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were down by -1.75, Dow down by -59, and NASDAQ up by +4.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly higher – Mumbai closed lower
• European markets are higher – Switzerland s closed for trading
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
Dollar index USD/JPY USD/CHF NZD/USD INR/USD	EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher
  • Precious metals are lower
  • Industrial metals are mostly higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.619, up +21.6 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.902%, up +18.7 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.169%, up +33.1 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.550, up from -0.435
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.283, up from +0.312
• VIX
  • At 16.88 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 21.23 on May 4; low = 15.53 on May 1
  • Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on May 5 as a small red candle with almost a long lower shadow and a small upper shadow, breaking above the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below the %D; RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was down -33.23 or -0.8%; the 5-week ATR  is 93.78 A down week, third in the last five weeks, and fourth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4123.82, R1=4199.35, R2=4262.46; S1=4060.71, S2=3985.18; S1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A relatively large green candle broke above a narrow range in which the index had moved for the past several trading days. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed above the %D; RSI-9 turned up to just below 60 from below 50; above 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving up to the upper bound of a Horizontal Channel between 4205.00 and 4060.00 that has been forming since March 30 RSI-21 has declined o below 50 from above 70 after making a Bearish Divergence Above EMA20, which is above EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Side
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down since 1:00 PM on Wednesday; RSI-21 has declined to just above 40 from above 65; Bearish Divergence Below EMA 20; at EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been moving up since 3:00 AM The Bollinger Band has been expanding since 8:30 AM, with the price walking down the lower band Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, May 17, in higher volume.

The major indices opened flat and made the day’s lows in the first half-hour of trading. After that, the indices moved gradually higher. The pace of advance increased in the afternoon. All but two S&P sectors – Consumer Staples and Utilities – closed higher.

From Briefing.com:

[…] The major indices all closed near their best levels of the day, which had the S&P 500 back above the 4,150 level. […] Advancing issues led declining issues by a greater than 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 5-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq. […] Many stocks came along for the rally, leading nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to close with a gain. The financials sector sat atop the leaderboard, up 2.1%. […] The energy sector (+2.1%) was another winning standout today, rising alongside oil prices. WTI crude oil futures rose 3.0% to $72.81/bbl. The industrial sector (+1.7%) also outperformed in today’s trade. Several consumer discretionary sector (+2.0%) components with news catalysts logged nice gains and drove the sector’s outperformance. […] Meanwhile, the consumer staples sector (-0.1%) closed near the bottom of the pack […] The 2-yr note yield rose nine basis points to 4.16% and the 10-yr note yield rose three basis points to 3.58%. Nasdaq Composite: +19.4% YTD S&P 500: +8.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.8% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +1.2% YTD Russell 2000: +0.8% YTD […] The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.7% with purchase applications declining 4.8% and refinancing applications dropping 8.0%. Total housing starts increased 2.2% month-over-month in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.401 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.405 million) from a downwardly revised 1.371 million (from 1.420 million) in March. Single-family starts were up 1.6% month-over-month, but only because of a strong 59.5% increase in the West; single-family starts declined in all other regions. Building permits declined 1.5% month-over-month to 1.416 million (Briefing.com consensus 1.438 million) from an upwardly revised 1.437 million (from 1.413 million) in March. Single-unit permits rose 3.1% month-over-month, led by gains in all regions. The weakness in permits was driven by a 9.7% decline in permits for 5 units or more. […] The weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a build of 5.04 million barrels after last week’s build of 2.95 million barrels. […] Overseas: Europe: DAX +0.3%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.1% Asia: Nikkei +0.8%, Hang Seng -2.1%, Shanghai -0.2% Commodities:  Crude Oil +2.11 @ 72.81 Nat Gas -0.01 @ 2.50 Gold -5.60 @ 1985.60 Silver +0.02 @ 23.92 Copper +0.08 @ 3.75