Directional Bias For The Day:

• S&P Futures are higher at 8:45 AM – jumped up more than 35 points following the CPI report at 8:30 AM
• The odds are for an up day with elevated volatility – watch for a break below 4145.00 for a change of sentiments
• The major economic data reports due during the day:
  • CPI m/m ( 0.4% vs. -0.4% est.; prev. 0.1% ) at 8:30 AM
  • Core CPI m/m ( 0.3% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM
  • CPI y/y ( 4.9% vs. 5.0% est.; prev. 5.0% ) at 8:30 AM

Directional Bias Before Open:

Weekly: Uptrend Resumed Daily: Uptrend Under Pressure 120-Min: Side-Down

30-Min: Side-Down 15-Min: Side-Down 6-Min:  Down-Side

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for S&P 500 are 4130.35, 4116.65, and 4084.73
• Critical resistance levels for S&P 500 are 4142.30, 4148.30, and 4164.10
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 4167.00, the high at 2:30 PM on May 3, and 4145.00, the low at 8:33 AM

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2023) closed at 4134.50, and the index closed at 4119.17 – a spread of about +15.25 points; the futures closed at 4134.00; the fair value is +0.50
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:45 AM, S&P 500 futures were up by +13.00, Dow by +58, and NASDAQ by +53.00

Markets Around The World

• Markets in the East closed mostly lower – Mumbai closed higher
• European markets are lower
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

Up	Down
GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD NZD/USD INR/USD	Dollar index EUR/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower
  • Precious metals are higher
  • Industrial metals are higher
  • Soft commodities are mixed
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 3.521, up +12.5 basis points from two weeks ago;
  • The 30-year is at 3.848%, up 19.7 basis points;
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.029%, up +5.3 basis points;
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at -0.508, up from -0.580
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.327, up from +0.255
• VIX
  • At 16.94 @ 8:30 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA;
  • Recent high = 21.23 on May 4; low = 15.53 on May 1
  • Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for S&P 500:

Weekly:	The week ending on May 5 as a small red candle with almost a long lower shadow and a small upper shadow, breaking above the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle Stochastic (9,1, 3): %K is below the %D; RSI-9 is just below 60 The week was down -33.23 or -0.8%; the 5-week ATR  is 93.78 A down week, third in the last five weeks, and fourth in the previous ten weeks; The weekly pivot point=4123.82, R1=4199.35, R2=4262.46; S1=4060.71, S2=3985.18; S1 pivot level was breached Above 10-week EMA and 39-week SMA; below 89-week SMA Uptrend
Daily	A small Doji within the large green real body of Friday. Monday’s candle was also a small Doji Harami. Stochastic (9, 1, 3): %K crossed below the %D; RSI-9 turned down to just above 50; below 8-DMA Above 20-day EMA, 50-day EMA, 100-day SMA, and 200-day SMA; Uptrend Under Pressure
2-Hour (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down – breaking above a downsloping flag after 8:30 AM CPI report – around the middle of a Horizontal channel that has been emerging since March 30 between 4200.00 and 4060.00; RSI-21 has gradually declined to below 40 from above 75 on Monday Below EMA20, which is at EMA10 of EMA50 Bias:  Side-Down
30-Minute (E-mini futures)	Moving sideways to down since 1:30 PM on Friday after rising 90 points from near 4062.00 on Thursday mid-day. Declined to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level RSI-21 has been moving along 40 Below EMA 20, which is below EMA10 of EMA50 Bias: Side-Down
15-Minute (E-mini futures)	The Bollinger Band (20, 2.0) has been drifting down since 3:00 AM. The Bollinger Band has been contracting a bit since 7:30 AM after expanding from 3:15 AM. Bias: Side-Down

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, May 9, in mostly lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average traded in higher volume.

The major indices gapped down at the open and then mostly traded sideways with little fluctuations. Most made Doji, Harami, or similar indecisive candles. The day’s trading range was small.

From Briefing.com:

[…] Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors registered losses with materials (-0.9%) and information technology (-0.9%) falling to the bottom of the pack. The industrials (+0.2%) led the outperformers […] The 2-yr note yield rose one basis point to 4.00% and the 10-yr note yield was unchanged at 3.52%. […] Nasdaq Composite: +16.4% YTD S&P 500: +7.3% YTD Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.3% YTD S&P Midcap 400: +0.6% YTD Russell 2000: -0.7% YTD […] Overseas: Europe: DAX +0.0%, FTSE -0.2%, CAC -0.6% Asia: Nikkei +1.0%, Hang Seng -2.1%, Shanghai -1.1% Commodities:  Crude Oil +0.57 @ 73.70 Nat Gas +0.01 @ 2.43 Gold +9.80 @ 2042.90 Silver +0.05 @ 25.89 Copper -0.04 @ 3.90